PRAGUE, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted an 11.8 billion crown ($539.8 million) deficit in
December, data showed on Thursday, the widest monthly gap in
five years and slightly worse than forecast in a Reuters poll.
Exports across Eastern Europe have been hammered by a
collapse in demand for the region's main market, the euro zone.
Western-owned factories in the Czech Republic and Hungary,
and other countries have started sacking thousands of workers
and cutting hours to compensate for a fall in new orders.
Following the data, the Czech crown <EURCZK=> dropped to
28.42 to the euro by 0811 GMT after trading at 28.4 before the
figures were released.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Dec Nov Dec fcast
balance -11.8 -0.47 -9.5
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -13.4 -18.0 n/a
imports -8.2 -13.2 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- The monthly trade deficit was the widest since December, 2003.
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
fell 13.4 percent in December from November, while imports
slipped 8.2 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 12.8 percent and imports dipped
7.5 percent year-on-year in December.
- The full year 2008 surplus dropped by 18.5 billion crowns
year-on-year.
COMMENT
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"The December foreign trade figure disappointed. It was the
third deficit in a row, which confirms that the euro zone
recession in the fourth quarter is fully reflected in the Czech
economy."
"With the view that net export was the engine of growth in
previous quarters, today's data confirms our pessimistic
estimate for GDP -- we expect 0 percent year-on-year in the
fourth quarter after plus 4.3 percent in the third quarter."
DAVID NAVRATIL, ECONOMIST, CESKA SPORITELNA
"The number... confirms the (poor) situation for exporters,
which has already been shown in the drop in foreign orders."
"We expect the development to be bad over the whole first
half, and then the situation could improve gradually."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The figure was worse than expected by the market, which
means a deterioration versus December 2007."
"The dynamics are more or less in line with expectations.
The drop was not as severe as in November. But it is a double
digit fall, so it is a continuation of the negative situation in
the export sector."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"Exports continue to fall by double digits; the seemingly
slower decline is due only to a temporary slowdown in export
growth in December the year before last."
"Nothing has changed about the picture of an impact of the
recession on the Czech Republic."
"Exports will fall in a double digit pace for another five
to six months... This year's trade balance surplus can fall to
zero."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak November trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on December foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
