* Poll sees zloty weaker at 4.65/EUR in 3 mths, 4.25 12 mths
* Crown seen weaker at 27.95/EUR in 3 mths, 26.40 12 mths
* Forint seen weaker at 300/EUR 3 mths, 285 in 12 mths
* Leu seen softer at 4.37/EUR in 3 mths, 4.08 in 12 mths
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, April 3 (Reuters) - Recession fears persist in
Central Europe and are likely to consume the gains of its
currencies posted after world leaders clinched a deal to combat
the global crisis, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Friday.
It will take several months for the dust to settle in the
world economy, and the currencies can firm only when investors
see the end of a world recession that has hit the region's
export- and foreign financing-reliant economies, analysts said.
The forecasts in the poll, conducted between April 1 and 3,
showed slightly firmer euro cross rates than in a poll one month
ago, but weaker levels than the peaks reached after the G20
meeting clinched a $1.1 trillion deal on Thursday.
The world leaders agreed to give $500 billion in extra funds
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and it is now better
placed to help Eastern Europe, the emerging economic region most
exposed to the economic crisis.
"This should calm fears of a complete financial meltdown in
the region," said Capital Economics analyst Neil Shearing in a
note. "But a sustained recovery remains dependent on continued
improvements in global risk appetite."
The poll indicated that most analysts still believe that the
concerns that have triggered steep currency falls in the region
since last summer will not dissipate quickly.
But investors, who often sold the currencies
indiscriminately in the past half year, may increasingly look at
fundamental differences, favouring the currencies of
economically stronger and politically more stable states such as
Poland.
"To mitigate remaining country-specific risks, we favour
highly diversified strategies focusing on a set of variables,"
said Goldman Sachs in a note.
RECOVERY BY SEPTEMBER
The poll's median forecast sees the Polish zloty
<EURPLN=D2>, which hit a two-month high of 4.3925 per euro on
Thursday, retreating to 4.64 by end-April, staying there in a
three-month horizon, and firming to 4.45 by end-September.
The crown <EURCZK=D2> of the Czech Republic, which faces
early elections in October, is expected to weaken to 27.50 in
one month from a three-month peak at 26.425 early on Friday, and
ease further to 27.95 in three months, before recovering to
27.00 by September.
"The further (central bank) interest rate loosening
anticipated by the market, as well as the temporary period
without government with confidence, may well trigger renewed
Czech crown weakening," said Vojtech Benda of ING in Prague.
Hungary's forint <EURHUF=D2>, which hit a six-week high of
292.40 to the euro early on Friday, is expected to ease to 305
by the end of April, before strengthening again to 300 by the
end of June.
The forint has got additional support from pledges of sharp
spending cuts by prime minister-designate Gordon Bajnai.
analysts say political uncertainties still abound, and the
economy is seen sinking deep into recession.
Hungary secured IMF aid in October to prevent meltdown, and
the Fund also granted financing to Romania last month.
"The recent appreciation looks short-lived and, after a
period of relative stability induced by the IMF/EU deal, the
Romanian leu could trade new lows as signs of sharp economic
contraction become clear," said ING Bank's Vlad Muscalu in
Bucharest.
The leu <EURRON=D2>, which has been kept relatively stable
in the past months by covert central bank intervention, is seen
easing to 4.27 by the end of April from an almost three-month
high of 4.1875 early on Friday, and to 4.37 by late June.
"I would be very surprised at an extended rally (by the
region's currencies)," said Zsolt Papp of KBC in London. "But if
economic prospects improve in a year and monetary policies
stabilize, all the currencies can strengthen."
The consensus forecasts in the poll see the zloty gaining 10
percent by end-March next year to 4.25 per euro, the Czech crown
4 percent to 26.40, the forint 8 percent to 285, and the leu 4
percent to 4.08.
For table: []
For Analysts' View []
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
