* U.S. consumer confidence up in October-Conference Board
* U.S. crude stocks likely rose last week-Poll []
* Oil's inverse correlation to dollar near 14-mnth high
* Coming Up: U.S. API oil inventory weekly report 1630 EDT
(Recasts, updates prices, market activity)
By Joshua Schneyer
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Oil rose slightly, hovering
above $82 a barrel on Tuesday, as rising U.S. consumer
confidence figures were offset by a firming dollar and
expectations of a boost in U.S. crude inventories.
After swings between negative and positive territory, U.S.
crude for December <CLc1> settled up 3 cents at $82.55 a
barrel, gaining for a third consecutive day.
ICE Brent <LCOc1> fell 2 cents to $83.52 by 2:35 p.m. EDT
(1835 GMT).
U.S. consumer confidence figures rose faster in October
than analysts had expected, the Conference Board reported.
[] Greater confidence can boost energy demand.
But the confidence data was offset as the dollar rose 0.9
percent against a basket of foreign currencies, potentially
denting demand for dollar-priced commodities abroad.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected weekly U.S. stocks data
to show stocks rose in the top consumer last week, by an
average 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks are forecast to
have risen by 500,000 barrels. []
U.S. oil stocks data will be released late Tuesday by
industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) while
official weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration is due on Wednesday morning.
"The consumer confidence data was okay, not bearish, and
prevented crude from sliding," said Andy Lebow, broker at MF
Global in New York.
"But we're trapped in a range here as the market awaits
(the) Fed meeting next week and what it will bring."
CONCERN OVER FED EASING
Commodities and currency markets awaited results of a U.S.
Federal Reserve starting next Tuesday. The Fed is expected to
approve purchases of government debt, or quantitative easing,
to help pull the economy out of the doldrums.
With market expectations for easing already running high --
and being priced into commodities futures -- the Fed's moves
could bear heavily on markets.
"The wild card here is if the Fed action doesn't match the
QE amount now being anticipated, there could be a short-term
bounce in the dollar and that could mean a sell-off for crude
futures," said Richard Ilczyszyn of Lind-Waldcock in Chicago.
Aggressive easing could undermine the value of the dollar.
China, the world's fastest-growing consumer of commodities,
voiced concern on Tuesday about commodity price inflation.
Dollar issuance by the United States is "out of control,"
leading to an inflation assault in China, Commerce Minister
Chen Deming said in comments reported on Tuesday by the
official Xinhua news agency. []
Oil has mostly been trading in the $75 to $85 a barrel
range since May.
Dollar gains have tended to coincide with a drop in oil
prices. The inverse correlation rose to its highest level in 14
months early Tuesday, before easing as U.S. markets opened.
[]
The inverse correlation has grown over the past two years,
partly because investors have been buying emerging market
shares and commodities when the dollar drops, and unloading
them when it firms.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For a graphic of the inverse correlation between U.S. crude
and the dollar's value against a basket of currencies:
http://link.reuters.com/gac32q
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
FRENCH STRIKES EASE
Walkouts ended at several French oil refineries on Tuesday,
and fuel was leaving four of France's 12 plants. Weeks of
French strikes to protest pension reform have crimped European
fuel supply. One at the key southern Fos-Lavera oil terminals
was still blocking 60 oil tankers, including 40 carrying crude,
the port of Marseilles said. []
The strikes may have allowed U.S. refiners to ship more
fuel to Europe in recent weeks. As a result, analysts forecast
a significant draw in U.S. distillate stocks , which have been
well above five-year averages this year. They likely fell by
1.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 22, a Reuters poll
showed.
(Additional reporting by Christopher Johnson in London,
Gene Ramos in New York and Alejandro Barbajosa in Singapore;
Editing by David Gregorio)
