PRAGUE, May 17 (Reuters) - Support for the Czech left-wing
Social Democrats has dipped ahead of elections on May 28029 but the party still
holds a solid lead over its main right-wing rival and the strongest position for
post-election talks on forming a cabinet, a poll showed on Monday.
Backing for the Social Democrats fell 0.8 percentage points from a month ago
to 27.0 percent, but was still ahead of the right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS) who
scored 18.7 percent, up slightly from 18.6 percent, according to the survey by
STEM agency.
The poll showed that the Social Democrats together with the far-left
Communists would win 103 seats in the 200-seat lower house, depriving the
centre-right parties of any chance of forming a majority.
Such a result could lead to lengthy haggling over the next cabinet because
the Social Democrats do not want to form a coalition with the Communists, still
tainted by their totalitarian rule which ended in 1989.
The left-wing majority would however allow for a minority Social Democrat
cabinet backed in parliament by the Communists, an acceptable option for the
Social Democrats.
But they could first try to form a cabinet with some of the centre-right
parties, the Social Democrats' preferred option, or possibly even a grand
coalition with the Civic Democrats.
The STEM poll differed from recent surveys by other agencies which pointed
to higher chances of a centre-right majority and showed the election outcome was
still wide open.
The country has been led by a caretaker cabinet since a centre-right
coalition collapsed last year, following an
inconclusive 2006 election which gave both centre-right and left-wing parties
100 seats each in the lower house.
The country needs a workable cabinet to tackle the budget deficit and start
long-neglected reforms of the pension and health care systems to avoid
accumulation of fiscal imbalances in the future.
DATE AGENCY ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens VV SPOZ
May 17/10 STEM 18.7 27.0 11.8 9.2 3.9 3.1 8.9 2.3
May 12/10 Factum 21.7 27.5 13.9 11.1 5.2 2.9 11.0 3.2
May 10/10 Median 19.0 26.2 13.3 10.7 7.5 3.5 7.6 6.8
April 21/10 CVVM 22.5 30.0 13.0 11.5 4.0 4.0 9.0 3.0
April 16/10 STEM 18.6 27.8 9.9 9.3 4.9 3.2 8.1 3.1
April 14/10 Factum 22.3 29.5 13.9 11.6 5.5 2.6 8.9 -
April 13/10 Median 21.2 27.0 16.8 7.5 7.4 4.8 4.3 3.0
March 24/10 Factum 22.5 28.7 13.9 11.1 5.8 3.4 9.2 -
March 17/10 CVVM 25.5 32.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 4.5 7.0 3.0
March 16/10 STEM 20.0 27.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 3.8 6.2 3.6
Feb 2010 Median 20.7 34.5 13.9 9.6 5.5 4.8 5.2 -
Feb 24/10 Factum 23.8 27.9 14.3 13.0 6.4 3.7 5.7 -
Feb 19/10 CVVM 20.5 33.0 14.5 12.5 5.0 5.0 6.0 2.0
Feb 18/10 STEM 23.2 28.6 11.7 9.1 4.3 2.7 4.7 2.0
Jan 2010 Median 27.8 32.0 12.8 9.3 7.4 4.3 2.4 -
Jan 31/10 Factum 25.5 31.8 13.3 11.4 6.6 2.0 3.8 -
Jan 27/10 CVVM 25.5 28.0 12.0 13.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 1.5
Jan 19/10 STEM 20.9 28.7 10.9 8.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 -
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June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3 - -
NOTE. The STEM poll was conducted between April 28 and May 8 among 1,257
Czechs.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right, liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - left
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- TOP09 - conservative, to the right of ODS
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
- Public Affairs (VV) - new centrist party
- People's Rights party (SPOZ) - centre-left, set up by former leftist PM
Zeman, says can support right or left government
Pollsters: The CVVM, Median and Factum results are based on a model
predicting gains at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and
undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include replies from all
respondents including those not willing to vote. Parties should thus win a
larger than indicated share of the vote at the election. This is relevant mainly
for small parties, which may cross the 5 percent threshold to win seats even if
direct voter preferences show them below the minimum level.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Susan Fenton)
