PRAGUE, July 13 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output fell
by 22.0 percent year-on-year in May, deeper than a flash
estimate of 21.7 percent released by the statistics office on
June 30, data showed on Monday.
The May figure compared with a 22.1 percent year-on-year
drop in April and represented a seasonally adjusted
month-on-month contraction of 2.1 percent.
Analysts had expected an 18.0 percent annual fall in May.
The crown currency was virtually unchanged after the data,
bid at 26.053 per euro.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) May April May forecast
Industrial output -22.0 -22.1 -18.0
Industrial sales -23.4 -23.1 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
DETAILS
- Seasonally adjusted output was down 2.1 percent
month-on-month.
- Seasonally adjusted output was down 20.1 percent year-on-year.
- Overall new orders fell 27.8 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad decreased 27.0 percent.
COMMENT:
RADOMIR JAC, ECONOMIST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGMENT
"Czech industrial data are weak across the board: not only
output but also sales and new orders contracted drastically in
May."
"Nevertheless, other data, including PMI surveys and also
recently published data on May industrial output from big
Eurozone countries are showing improvement and indicate that
pace of decline of Czech industrial output should soften
considerably from current levels, very likely as early as in
June."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"It's clear no stabilisation has taken place so far and
further declines will take place as indicated by miserable
orders... Overall it is another number that shows the second
quarter GDP result will be very bad."
PRICEWATERHOUSERCOOPERS, RESEARCH DEPT
"Czech industry is still waiting for a significant impulse
from its largest market -- Germany. Industrial there orders rose
4.4 percent in May. Czech companies, however, will have to wait
for such orders. The Czech economy is reacting to what happens
at its Western neighbour with a delay of 6-9 percent."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING
"Month-on-month, industrial production is still declining,
... We see a very big contraction in new orders, so no sign of
an export recovery from abroad."
"I would still remain cautious regarding the Czech export
recovery based on the signals from Western Europe, and Germany
especially... I would not expect a very sharp recovery in Czech
exports in the next two or three months."
"For interest rates it doesn't mean much now, because the
central bank is more cautious about exchange rate volatility and
exchange rates are already relatively low."
"The impact of previous rate cuts were not very effective
when it comes to market rates. So I would expect one more
fine-tuning (cut) of 25 basis points in the next two or three
months, but I wouldn't expect a bigger response from the central
bank."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE
"Industrial production did not bring any surprises... The
main causes of the decline are not surprising either: they
include a drop in metal products, the steel industry along with
the car industry are squeezing the output figure the most."
"It is clear that the scrap subsidy and other stimuli both
abroad and at home are having a very limited impact on the
performance of Czech industry."
BACKGROUND:
- May foreign trade figures.......................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on May output and sales numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
