* Slovakia revises Q4 growth down to 2.5 pct y/y
* Outlook poor, stats office sees H1 growth 0.8 pct
* Analysts say growth may turn negative in Q1
(Adds Stats Office comment par 7-8, background)
By Martin Santa
BRATISLAVA, March 5 (Reuters) - Slovakia revised down growth
in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 2.5 percent on Thursday and
forecast further deterioration in the first half of 2009 as the
trade-dependent economy suffers from a fall in euro zone demand.
The Slovak Statistics office cut its figure for growth in
the new euro zone member from a previously reported 2.7 percent,
already the worst result since 2001 and a sharp drop from a 6.6
percent expansion in the third quarter of last year.
The statistical bureau predicted the economy would slow to a
just 0.8 percent expansion in the first half. But that would
still make Slovakia, which joined the euro in January, one of
the few eastern European economies to avoid a contraction.
"We saw from these figures a sharp slowdown of the economy
due to the euro zone recession," said Silvia Cechovicova, an
analyst at bank CSOB.
"The outlook for 2009 is not very bright. We will see weak
growth in the first quarter, investment will be tamed as well as
consumption. We cannot rule out we will see negative growth in
the first quarter."
Analysts said the January gas dispute between Russia and
Ukraine, which halted supply to Slovak firms for several days,
would also have an impact on the first quarter.
Statistics Office's Frantisek Bernadic said foreign demand
was no longer a key driver for the Slovak economy, which has
been among the European Union's fastest growing in recent years.
"We are now in an environment of a significant uncertainty,"
Bernadic told a news conference. "There are tendencies that
foreign demand could recover in the second half of the year."
Like other EU countries, Slovakia has been hit by the global
economic turmoil as its export-reliant economy suffers from the
impact of weakening demand in its main western markets, most
notably Germany.
The Statistics Office said GDP growth was 6.4 percent for
the whole of 2008, slowing down from the record 10.4 percent in
2007.
The country expects to fare better than many other EU states
but the government has said there were downside risks to its 2.4
percent 2009 growth forecast.
The region's biggest economy, Poland, expanded 2.9 percent
on the year, while the Czech Republic showed 1.0 percent growth
and Hungary contracted by 2.0 percent year-on-year in the last
quarter of 2008.
It also revised January monthly inflation down to 0.4
percent.
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(Writing by Jan Lopatka, editing by Patrick Graham)
