* WHAT: Sept retail sales, output, Oct CPI
* WHEN: Retail sales, output on Nov 8, CPI on Nov 9
* REUTERS FORECASTS: Retail sales median forecast 2.0 pct
yr/yr vs 2.8 pct in Aug, industrial output median forecast 10.7
pct yr/yr vs 12.9 pct in Aug, CPI median forecast 0.1 pct mo/mo
vs -0.3 pct in Sept and 2.2 pct yr/yr vs 2.0 pct.
Sixteen analysts participated in the poll and the range of
views on retail sales was -2.5 to 3.3 pct; on industrial output
7.1 to 13.5 pct. Inflation predictions ranged from -0.1 to 0.3
month-on-month and from 1.9 to 2.4 year-on-year.
* FACTORS TO WATCH: Slowly growing domestic demand, fuelled
by relatively low unemployment and rising wages, is expected to
have kept inflation in the positive territory in October.
Inflation in October was propped up mainly by higher food
prices and some seasonal effects such as a small rise in prices
of clothes and food services, analysts said, but there were also
signals of some growth in domestic demand.
The annual rise, a touch above the bank's target of 2.0
percent, was due to the low comparative base from last year.
"Inflation in the Czech Republic is a non-event at the
moment but when the economy is recovering and inflation is not
in a negative territory the question is when to start raising
rates," said Miroslav Plojhar, EMEA economist at JP Morgan.
Demand-led inflation, measured by core inflation, has crept
up to around zero, from the negative territory where it had been
in the months until summer.
Core inflation, as released by the statistics office, is
seen as a good indicator of demand pressures in the economy
because it shows price development adjusted for regulated
prices, indirect taxes and seasonal effects.
Plojhar said rate rises could come in the middle of the next
year when demand-led inflation should markedly pick up.
The jobless rate is expected to drop to 8.3 percent in
October, the lowest since June 2009, from 8.5 percent in
September, helping retail sales <CZRSLY=ECI> rise 2.0 percent
year on year.
The Czech central bank is virtually certain to keep interest
rates on hold on Thursday at a record low 0.75 percent.
But the board is expected to vote on a hike and analysts
expect a shift to a moderately hawkish rhetoric at a news
conference after the decision.
* MARKET REACTION: Markets are unlikely to react strongly to
the data. The crown <EURCZK=> has been driven chiefly by global
risks. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could boost bets
on an earlier rise in interest rates.
For the preview table: []
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, writing by Jana Mlcochova;
editing by Sujata Rao)
