March 5 (Reuters) - The European Union's main emerging
currencies are expected to start to recover from recent deep
losses only in more than six months' time, a Reuters poll of
analysts showed on Thursday.
For story []
For table []
Following are comments from the respondents to the poll.
ON REGION
KOON CHOW, BARCLAYS CAPITAL, LONDON
"It makes a lot of sense that given the weight of the Euro
area downturn and its impact on exports, that Central European
currencies should continue to weaken."
"However one can still argue for a 'soft' form of
differentiation where some currencies fall by a greater
percentage than others."
"The differentiation will be due to relative banking sector
health, financial risks and of course the sensitivity to the
global cyclical downturn. Certainly that is our scenario going
forward and in arguing that the zloty will outperform the
forint"
ZSOLT KONDRAT, MKB BANK, BUDAPEST
"Of course there is a negative scenario in the heads, too.
But in the base case we hope that even if the (global) crisis
will be prolonged, it will not deepen further, there will be no
meltdown in certain countries and the aid distributed will be
sufficient. If the bad scenario is priced out, that alone can
cause currency firming (in the six-month horizon)."
"Also there has been coordinated verbal intervention in the
region... and as a last resort aid from abroad is also there.
And if the currencies cannot weaken much further as there is
support from fundamentals and policies, after some time they
will firm, that's how markets work."
"I don't think that investors will strongly differentiate
between the Polish, Romanian, the Czech or the Hungarian
currencies... If there will be any differentiation, that will
favour the Czechs (due to stronger fundamentals). But if the
region's countries continue what they did in the past days, that
will send a bad message, that they are unable to act together --
and everybody will suffer then."
ON ZLOTY <EURPLN=>
PETER POPLAWSKI, BANK GOSPODARSKI, WARSAW
"Amid intensified actions of both the MPC (Monetary Policy
Council) and the government, the zloty is likely to remain under
pressure both from CEE and core market woes. We do not, however,
expect more intensified speculation aimed at depreciation of the
zloty."
ALFRED ADAMIEC, NOBLE BANK, WARSAW
"The pressure on PLN showed the first signs of weakening in
the last days. The difference of rates between Poland and
Eurozone should be perceived at last and play a positive role
for PLN. I assume that aversion to risk will gradually diminish
on global financial markets."
MAJA GOETTIG, BANK BPH, WARSAW
"In our opinion, even despite a (likely) temporary
correction (firming) the zloty will remain in depreciation
trend. Within this trend we expect a bounce back in H2 '09,
which will be supported by improved sentiment on the world
financial markets and a slightly stronger appetite for riskier
assets."
"Additionally, in H2 '09 information indicating
stabilisation (or even improvement) of the Polish real economy
could further favour the zloty."
"A strong impulse for the zloty's appreciation would be a
decision on Poland's entry to the ERM2 in 2009, but we think
that is rather unlikely. In our baseline scenario at end-2009
the zloty will return to around 4.30/EUR. If there are no
factors in favour of the Polish economy perspectives, the zloty
could, however, remain weak in the whole 2009."
ON CZECH CROWN
PETER POPLAWSKI, BANK GOSPODARSKI, WARSAW
"With somewhat eased pressure on the CEE currencies the
crown is likely to limit potential losses in coming months. We
do not, however, expect the currency to regain strength until
the second half of the year."
VOJTECH BENDA, ING, PRAGUE
"It seems likely that last week we saw a local peak of
EUR/CZK. We expect the currency to stabilise at levels of
28-29/EUR in a 6-month horizon, while slight gradual return to
the stronger levels could be seen in Q1 '10 on the back of an
expected economic stabilization."
HELENA HORSKA, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE
"Fragile economic figures and still high risk aversion will
weigh the CZK down. Recovery is likely to come in 2H 2009 if the
economy starts recovering and the EMU key rate falls deeply
below its Czech counterpart."
ON FORINT
PETER POPLAWSKI, BANK GOSPODARSKI, WARSAW
"With poor domestic fundamentals and very poor perception of
Hungary by foreign investors, the forint is likely to remain
strongly affected by the global turmoil."
ON LEU
ANGELIU URSACHE, BRD, BUCHAREST
"The EURRON is squeezed between risk aversion and tightness
of the domestic money market. Positions against the RON are
difficult to open due to high interest rates for RON and the
threat of NBR (central bank) intervention."
"Just like in the case of regional peers, the depreciation
went too far from fundamentals."
For details of Reuters fx polls please click on
<FOREXPOLL01>
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news []
Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX <EEFX=>
Middle East spot FX <MEFX=> Asia spot FX <ASIAFX=>
Latin America spot FX <LATAMFX=>
World central bank news []
Economic Data Guide <ECONGUIDE>
Official rates []
Emerging Diary []
Top events []
Diaries [] Diaries Index [] (Reporting by
Sandor Peto)
