WARSAW, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint and Poland's
zloty jumped on Thursday, with a surge in global equities
markets and better-than-expected euro zone growth data
outweighing disappointing GDP figures from the region.
Growth data from Hungary and Romania showed
bigger-than-expected contractions in the second quarter of 7.6
percent and 8.8 percent, while Czech retail sales also showed
signs the recession had hit the domestic economy.
At 0730 GMT, the zloty <EURPLN=> was up almost 0.8 percent
against the euro, while the forint <EURHUF=> was 1 percent
stronger. The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was up 0.3 percent, and
Romania's leu <EURRON=> was virtually sideways.
Regional stocks also opened stronger, with Budapest's BUX
<> leading gains by rising almost 3 percent. The Warsaw
bourse will delay the start ot today's session until at least
0900 GTM. []
"Equity markets are still the main drivers and they
mostly rebounded on Wednesday, boosting currencies," said Lutz
Karpovitz, FX strategist at Commerzbank.
"The additional support came from the German GDP data, which
were much better than expected."
Germany and France surprisingly posted 0.3 percent growth in
the second quarter. []
But the Hungarian and Romanian growth data indicated the
region was still lagging in any recovery.
Czech data showed retail sales fell 4.9 percent year-on-year
in June, a bigger fall than analysts had forecast and a sign
that what started as a foreign-demand led contraction had
filtered into the real domestic economy as households suffered
from rising unemployment and stagnant real wages.
"This is something that confirms the recent steps of the
central bank to cut interest rates," said David Marek, chief
economist at Patria Finance.
Czech second quarter GDP data is due out on Friday.
Poland's statistics office releases inflation data at 1200
GMT and Karpovitz said it also might give some support for the
currency in that it is expected to indicate no lowering of
interest rates -- in contrast to other countries such as the
Czech Republic and Hungary where inflation is slowing quickly.
"For as long as (Poland's) inflation remains above the
central bank's target, the Monetary Policy Council is unlikely
to cut rates," Karpowitz said.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2009
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 25.746 25.821 +0.29% +3.91%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 4.121 4.153 +0.78% -0.15%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 268.8 271.52 +1.01% -1.95%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.339 7.32 -0.26% +0.35%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.216 4.212 -0.09% -4.78%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 93.486 93.436 -0.05% -4.29%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR +4 basis points to 53bps over bmk*
4-yr T-bond CZ4YT=RR +6 basis points to +112bps over bmk*
8-yr T-bond CZ8YT=RR +6 basis points to +245bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR -6 basis points to +340bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR -1 basis points to +281bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR -4 basis points to +253bps over bmk*
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR -5 basis points to +671bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR -4 basis points to +602bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR -3 basis points to +516bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 0933 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1500 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, writing by Dagmara Leszkowicz,
editing by Mike Peacock)
