PRAGUE, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a narrower-than-expected 10.9 billion crown ($582.3
million) surplus in September, data showed on Wednesday.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Sept Aug Sept fcast
balance 10.88 3.59 14.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 5.1 -8.1 n/a
imports 6.8 -10.1 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.8 percent in September from August, while imports rose
9.8 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports and imports grew 18.3 percent and 20.3
percent year-on-year in September, outpacing the dynamics in
crowns, thanks to the firming of the domestic currency.
- Export in trade with vehicles and machinery rose by 0.4
percent year-on-year.
-Imports outpaced exports for the first time since February
2008.
- The Czech crown weakened by 0.4 percent to 24.200 per euro
following the release of the data.
COMMENTARY
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"Foreign trade showed a 2.8 billion crown lower surplus than
last year in September, and this was despite three extra working
days. Signs of a slowdown are certainly appearing in the
balance."
"We expect this year's trade balance will be around last
year's level of 90 billion crowns. In 2009 we estimate a drop in
the surplus to below 50 billion crowns due to the global
recession."
"For monetary policy, today's release won't be significant.
We expect the central bank to cut rates and the new
macroeconomic forecast will indicate further policy easing in
2009."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PFF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"What is surprising is that exports really grew slower than
imports."
"The data show that foreign demand is slowing."
"For several months there have been indications that for
example new industrial orders are weakening. PMI indicators for
the Czech Republic show that export orders weaken and I would
say that this number is in line with these trends."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"The figure was below market expectations and our forecast.
It might be a start of some reversal trend in foreign trade
because in September it was the first time in a long time that
you can see year-on-year deterioration in the foreign trade
balance."
"This figure is some negative signal for GDP in the third
quarter. So overall I would say it is a negative surprise for
the market."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECNOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The data as a whole is moderately negative... The foreign
trade surplus is gradually shrinking."
"All data coming from western Europe lately show that the
euro zone will not escape a recession and it is beginning to
show also in the dynamics of Czech exports to the euro zone."
"On the other hand, falling commodity prices, which shrink
the value of imports, are a moderate relief."
"I do not think there is a reason to change the assumption
that the central bank will cut rates this week by a quarter of a
percentage point."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak August trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision []
[] []
- For further details on September foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
