* WHAT: Czech third-quarter GDP
* WHEN: Nov 13, 0800 GMT
* GDP seen up 1.0 pct q/q, down 4.8 pct y/y
* Concern over domestic demand ahead
* For TABLE, click on []
By Mirka Krufova
PRAGUE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Czech economy jumped by 1.0
percent in the third quarter, decisively pulling out of negative
territory thanks to improving exports and inventories but risks
remain due to sagging domestic demand, a Reuters poll showed.
The poll of 18 economists showed the 1.0 percent
quarter-on-quarter expansion would put the year-on-year drop at
4.8 percent. The flash estimate of third quarter data is due at
9 a.m. (0800 GMT) on Friday.
The export-driven central European economy showed a rise of
0.1 percent in the second quarter, and a deep 5.5 percent
year-on-year drop.
The Czech flash estimate data will coincide with
third-quarter readings from the euro zone -- expected to show a
0.5 percent quarterly rise -- as well as data from Hungary,
Romania and Slovakia. <ECONEZ> <ECONCE>
An improvement in west European demand, fed by a
car-scrappage scheme in Germany, helped Czech exports, analysts
said.
"The economy has bottomed out and is gradually emerging from
the recession... driven by recovery in foreign demand," said
Piotr Matys, an analyst at 4CAST who expects a 1.0 percent
growth.
He said household demand has been resilient but could turn
sour due to fiscal cuts and rising unemployment, but some other
analysts said the weakening would already be seen in the third
quarter.
Analysts said restocking was another factor that would help
the quarterly readings after a sharp drop in inventories in t1he
first half.
NOT SO ROSY AHEAD
Economists including from the central bank have spoken of a
risk of a 'W'-shaped recovery, with a second, smaller dip in
activity expected in 2010.
The bank's new forecast released last week showed the bank
saw a 4.9 percent annual decline in the third quarter.
It forecast improving year-on-year readings in the near
future but then weakening growth throughout 2010, with the
lowest -0.2 percent year-on-year reading in the fourth quarter
next year before another rebound. It sees full-year 2010 growth
at 1.4 percent.
Analysts in the poll agreed on the weak outlook for domestic
demand, given government tax hikes and spending cuts estimated
to cut 0.8 percentage points off GDP next year, and rising
unemployment which limits households' income.
"Annual performance will be improving further in the
quarters to come thanks to improving situation in major export
markets as well as thanks to statistical impact of base
effects," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF Asset
Management.
"That said, household consumption is likely to deteriorate
further and we think it will find its trough in terms of annual
decline only at the beginning of 2010."
(Writing by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Victoria Main)
