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PRAGUE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The Czech Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) signalled business growth had improved for the third
straight month in January, Markit Economics data showed on
Monday.
PMI jumped to 53.1, from 50.8 in December. A figure above 50
indicates business expansion. The output and new orders
components accelerated and pointed to growth for a sixth
straight month.
The data showed manufacturers had shed jobs at a slower pace
than in the past year. Supply delays were also registered due to
firms raising purchasing volumes.
Analysts expect a slow recovery for the Czech economy,
keeping output this year below levels seen before the global
economic crisis battered the country's export-reliant
manufacturing base.
December data released last week showed the first annual
rise in industrial output since September 2008.
Some analysts expressed surprise that the end of car
scrapping subsidies in neighbouring Germany and a
still-uncertain view on foreign demand had not weighed more
heavily on the economy in the first part of the year.
The Markit data, compiled for HSBC, showed Czech
manufacturers stepped up purchasing in January in expectation of
future demand growth and higher raw material prices.
The Czech crown ticked weaker, trading at 26.103 per euro,
from 26.092 before the data.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS: 01/10 12/09 01/09
Purchasing Managers' Index 53.1 50.8 31.5
Output 56.2 52.1 29.5
(For table, double click on......................[]
- A figure above 50 indicates expansion on the previous month
while a number below 50 signals contraction.
COMMENTARY:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"It is another improvement... We have markedly jumped above
the 50 point border. All the sub-indexes show an improvement,
not only new orders but also employment, which is approaching
the 50 point boarder that indicates that the labour market
should turn around this year as well."
"The reasons are obvious: an improvement an economic climate
in the euro zone, which can be observed on new orders and
production, and it will gradually spread in the rest of the
Czech economy."
"We are a small and open economy, and just like we were
quickly pulled down by the euro zone in times of the downturn,
we are being pulled up again. The reaction of the Czech economy
(to the euro zone) is more significant than, say, in Poland."
JAROMIR SINDEL, CHIEF ANALYST, CITIBANK
"The data is more positive than we had been expecting for
the turn of the year... We see positive development in the car
industry."
"We had expected the turn of the year and the beginning of
this year would be dampened, but car industry development is
positive in January, and that surprised us."
"The observed trends (in the car industry) have improved.
The expected output has improved. Let's see if it lasts."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The figure is better than we expected. We can presume that
Czech industry is on the upturn and recovering well. The
question is whether this will be a continuous process."
"The chances for the ongoing upturn are good, given the
statistics of new orders for December."
"At least for a couple additional months, solid growth
should continue. What will happen from the second quarter is
still an open question."
KUBILAY OZTURK, ECONOMIST FOR EMERGING EUROPE AT HSBC
"The headline index improved noticeably in the first month
of 2010 on the back of a remarkable increase in output and a
solid rise in new orders, underlining the uninterrupted
improvement in demand."
"Both external and domestic markets appear to have been on
the mend in January, suggesting a wider economic recovery is
under way. The latter was also confirmed by a leap in firms'
purchasing volumes over the month."
"However, a subdued increase in EMU manufacturing PMI in
January and the downside surprise in a flash estimate for German
2009 growth suggest the impact of fiscal stimuli and
car-scrapping schemes in Western Europe may fade earlier than
expected, implying recovery may be gradual and bumpy."
BACKGROUND:
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] [] []
- November foreign trade figures.................[]
- November industrial output.....................[]
[]
- December preliminary industrial output.........[]
- Third-quarter GDP data......................... []
LINKS:
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
** Index copyright and database rights owned by Markit:
unlicensed copying strictly prohibited **
Detailed PMI data are only available under licence from
Markit and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence. For
further information please phone Markit on ++ 44 20 7260 2454.
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
