* Poland seen entering ERM-2 in 2010, euro entry in 2013
* Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary to adopt euro in 2013
* Turkey's EU entry bid to take until 2020
By Nigel Davies
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Poland will not join the euro in
2012, as its government wants, due to serious political and
practical hurdles, but its ambition to do so will be met the
year after, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Thursday.
A poll of over 30 economists and analysts on likely entry
dates into the euro zone for a host of countries showed Poland's
move into the ERM-2 band, a prerequisite for euro membership,
would happen in 2010.
Full entry would come in 2013, the same forecast given
nearly six months ago, despite the worst financial crisis and
global recession in years that has exposed the fragility of many
economies, both rich and poor.
Polish finance minister Jacek Rostowski said on Thursday the
country still planned to enter into the European Exchange Rate
mechanism (ERM-2) pre-euro waiting room in the first half of
this year, or possibly the second, depending on market
conditions, with an eye to full euro adoption in three years.
But that may have to be postponed as market volatility and
political opposition take their toll, say analysts.
The poll also showed the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia and Lithuania also achieving full membership in 2013,
roughly in line with the last poll's findings.
Some countries have now edged back from their bids, while
for others like Poland, tumbling markets and currencies have
highlighted the protection joining the euro club could offer.
"Joining ERM-2 in 2009 seems risky having the financial
crisis and the zloty's recent volatility in mind," said Ralf
Wiegert at IHS Global Insight. The zloty has fallen by around 30
percent to the euro since last July <EURPLN=>.
"But if European authorities allow the zloty to join then
they will do their utmost to defend the commitment as long as
this holds true for Poland's government and central bank."
Growing debt mountains faced by a number of euro zone
hopefuls was seen as one of the main potential barriers to
entry, while controlling inflation remained a major concern for
some even though it has fallen considerably falls as oil prices
tumble.
Any country wishing to join the euro must keep its currency
inside the ERM-2 for at least two years, trading within a
plus/minus 15 percent range around a central parity in order to
prove it is stable enough to adopt the common currency.
Some in Poland have voiced concern that now is not the best
moment to join giving such high levels of currency volatility
globally.
"If the economic situation does not stabilise there will be
no proper conditions for entering ERM-2, so it is very difficult
to talk about joining the euro zone already in January 2012,"
Polish central bank policymaker Miroslaw Pietrewicz told Reuters
this month.
The survey showed Bulgaria's lev currency was expected to
enter into the ERM-2 in 2012, a year after the Czech koruna and
Hungarian forint. Romania's leu was predicted to join in 2012,
becoming a full member of the 16 country wide bloc in 2015.
WAIT FOR TURKEY
Turkey's renewed efforts to join the European Union face an
even tougher test, though its links to key gas routes could
prove a strong negotiating card.
The poll showed the country entering the EU in 2020, with a
30 percent chance that either the EU would suspend negotiations
or that Turkey would tire of trying and end them itself.
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in a rare trip to
Brussels on Monday that accession to the EU was a top priority,
while the country has also appointed its first full-time EU
negotiator to push its bid.
But enlargement fatigue among some EU members and the EU's
desire for Turkey to speed up reforms needed for it to join are
among several issues that have limited progress on its
negotiations.
Yet Turkey's key links to gas routes in the Middle East and
Asia could help its bid given EU concerns of an over-reliance on
supply from Russia.
"Recent crises over energy have forced many EU leaders to
reconsider Turkey's strategic importance as a route for oil and
gas from the Caspian and Central Asia. This may work to Turkey's
advantage in the longer term," said James Ker-Lindsay at the
London School of Economics.
A gas price dispute between Russia and Ukraine this month
saw supplies parts of Europe cut for weeks.
Other countries also face similar long waits to join.
Macedonia was forecast to enter in 2015, Montenegro and Serbia
in 2016, and Bosnia and Albania in 2018.
(For poll data click on <EMUPOLL30>)
(For analysis on Poland's bid see [])
(For TAKE A LOOK see [])
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Ian Jones)
