PRAGUE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose 0.2
percent year-on-year in November, less than market expectations
but the first growth since September 2008, the Czech Statistics
office said in a flash estimate on Wednesday.
Analysts had forecast 1.3 percent annual growth in November,
decelerating from a 7.2 percent fall in October. New orders rose
8.1 percent in November, helped by an 11.1 percent jump in
foreign orders.
The figure was heavily influenced by a base effect from
November of last year, when production fell 17.4 percent just as
the economic crisis was gaining speed.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was marginally stronger at 26.39
per euro at 0836 GMT, from 26.41 before the data.
PMI surveys and new order data indicate Czech industry is
gradually improving. However, the end of the German car
scrapping subsidy and an expected winding down of restocking
inventories may hinder output growth in the coming months.
The CSU said the data included 79 percent of industrial
output respondents, representing 82 percent of the standard
survey sample in total revenues.
The statistics office will release full details on Jan. 14.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Nov Oct Nov forecast
Industrial output 0.2 -7.2 +1.3
(For table of November data click on...........[])
- Seasonally adjusted output was estimated to be down 2.2
percent year-on-year.
- Industrial sales slid 2.7 percent annually in current prices
in November.
- The value of new orders grew 8.1 percent, of which foreign
orders increased 11.1 percent.
COMMENTS:
PAVEL MERTLIK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAFFEISEN BANK, PRAGUE
"For the first time since September, 2008, the year-on-year
comparison is positive, with industrial production leveling out
to the same place it was a year ago -- around 15 percent below,
or a little more, than its peak in the third quarter of last
year."
"Czech industry still has a long way to go for a revival in
its dynamics, and in 2010 industrial figures will only be a bit
better."
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"Production got back to black figures mainly due to the low
base effect... The industrial sector should be supported next
year by a more sustainable recovery abroad, which will
positively affect all sectors."
"On the other hand, the automobile sector will suffer due to
a drop in demand in view of the previous scrap subsidies."
"Due to higher unemployment, there will also be low domestic
demand, which will negatively impact the production of goods for
final consumption."
"In any case, recovery abroad will be the decisive factor...
We expect that industry in 2010 to improve by 6.3 percent after
an expected fall of around 13 percent this year."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"The major factor is the base effect. In the last months of
2008, we saw sharp drops. This is something supportive for
November and the months to come. But the data is very volatile
because activity is now driven by orders."
"Producers are scared to produce something that will end up
in their inventories."
"If you take surveys like PMI, it tells you that, most
likely, activity should be gradually improving."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"It means industry is again gaining ground... This is in
line with our expectations, but we had expected growth in output
to be slightly higher. So the improvement is only very gradual."
"The figures are difficult to compare because of the sharp
changes in November last year. The quarterly average for the
fourth quarter will be a better indicator."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- For the Czech October industry data: []
LINKS:
- For further information on November preliminary releases on
industry data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/home
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
