(Repeats story published late on Thursday)
By Gareth Jones
WARSAW, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Russia's reported decision to
halt the deployment of missiles on the Baltic Sea has exposed
Polish and Czech security concerns as Washington starts to
review U.S. plans for a missile shield in central Europe.
The Interfax news agency quoted the Russian military on
Wednesday as saying Moscow had halted plans to deploy Iskander
missile systems to its Baltic outpost of Kaliningrad on the
Polish border.
Analysts interpreted the move as a good will gesture towards
new U.S. President Barack Obama.
There has been no official Russian confirmation of the
decision. But the Kremlin said its position was always that it
would only deploy missiles in Kaliningrad if Washington
implemented its plan for a European missile shield.
Russia opposes U.S. plans to deploy 10 interceptor missiles
in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic as part of a global
missile defence system. Washington says the system is aimed
against so-called 'rogue states' such as Iran, not Moscow.
The Interfax report has stirred fears that Moscow may now be
trying to drive a wedge between the United States and its
ex-communist NATO allies in central Europe.
"If the United States gives up now, it would mean the whole
security situation in this part of Europe was subject to
Moscow's diktats," said Witold Waszczykowski, Poland's former
missile shield negotiator and now deputy head of the National
Security Bureau.
Other analysts also urged caution over Moscow's move.
"Russia has not changed its tactics since Soviet times. Its
primary aim is to weaken the U.S. military presence in Europe,
especially central Europe," said Eugeniusz Smolar of the Center
for International Relations in Warsaw.
On the Interfax report, he said: "Russia is playing the very
well-known game of Soviet diplomacy, putting a cow into the
house, then removing it and calling this a good will gesture."
OPTIMISM
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, asked to comment after
talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, said: "I feel the Iskander missiles is
not the preferred option for Russia."
"I am more optimistic than before (my talks with Putin),"
Tusk added, without elaborating.
Czech Foreign Minister Schwarzenberg also welcomed the
Russian move, saying he hoped Moscow had realised it was harming
itself by threatening to station missiles in Kaliningrad.
Both countries have said they are confident Obama will
eventually decide to press ahead with missile defence after a
planned review of the programme. Like Washington, they insist
Moscow has nothing to fear from such a defensive system.
Obama has said he supports missile defence in general but
that it should be developed pragmatically and cost-effectively
and with assurances the technology works.
Tomas Weiss of the Prague-based Institute for European
Policy said that if Obama abandoned missile defence it would be
on cost or feasibility grounds, not because of Russian pressure.
"Due to the financial crisis, we can expect the process to
drag but I don't expect it to be abandoned completely," he said.
"When it becomes clear that Obama will not stop pushing
American interests, they (the Russians) will go back, sooner or
later, to rattling their sabres again," Weiss said.
Polish analysts say the shield accord for Warsaw is as much
about a perceived threat from a newly reassertive Russia --
dubbed "imperialistic" by President Lech Kaczynski -- as about
any hypothetical challenge from Iran.
For that reason, in return for agreeing to host the
interceptors, Tusk's government persuaded the United States to
station a battery of Patriot missiles in Poland as defence
against a short-range attack Warsaw fears.
Since the shield accord was clinched last August, Polish
analysts say, Russia's brief war with Georgia and its strongarm
approach to Ukraine in their row over natural gas supplies to
Europe have justified Warsaw's worries about Putin's Russia.
"After the war in Georgia, after the gas war, what else,
what additional wake-up call does Europe need (with regard to
Russia)?" Waszczykowski said.
Polish and Czech analysts said NATO and the European Union
must speak with a single voice in their dealings with Russia.
"We need a common stance in the EU, in NATO, not to confront
Russia -- nobody really regards Russia today as an enemy -- but
to persuade it that partnership means just that, not ... trying
to play one country off against another," said Smolar.
(Additional reporting by Jan Korselt in Prague and Gabriela
Baczynska in Warsaw)
