PRAGUE, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The Czech economy grew 1.1
percent over the previous three months in the third quarter, far
above analysts' forecast of a 0.6 percent rise, data showed on
Friday.
On a year-on-year basis, Czech gross domestic product
expanded 3.0 percent in real terms in the third quarter, the
Czech stats office said.
The statistics office did not release a breakdown of its
flash GDP estimate, but said the rise was mainly due to
manufacturing and trade growth.
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KEY POINTS:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(pct change) Q3/10 Q2/10 Fcast Q3
quarter/quarter 1.1 0.9 0.6
year/year 3.0 2.4 2.5
Details of Q3 GDP data..........................[]
- The Czech stats office will release full details on December
9.
COMMENTARY:
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"Czech economic growth should slow down after the very good
third quarter, although it will not be anything dramatic."
"The (effect of) inventory cycle is slowly being exhausted;
a drop in new car registrations abroad threatens car exports.
Domestic fiscal restrictions should negatively influence
household and government consumption and fixed investments in
the short-term."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT:
"Czech GDP surprised positively in the third quarter,
clearly surpassing expectations, and with all likelihood also
clearly outperforming growth of Eurozone in both
quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year terms.
"As regards added value, it is no surprise that
manufacturing and trade were the major drivers of growth.
"What are we missing at the moment is information about
expenditures but I believe that both exports and gross fixed
capital creation were important drivers of the growth and we
simply have to wait until 9 December to learn what was the role
of inventories.
"If detailed statistics also reveal that growth of private
consumption accelerated in quarter-to-quarter terms in the third
quarter, then GDP development would argue for discussion about
an earlier interest rate hike in the Czech Republic.
"Nevertheless, it is fair to say that the Czech National
Bank was pretty optimistic about GDP growth for second half of
this year (although the third quarter result is a positive
surprise also for them), while the central bank has a gloomy
outlook for 2011 GDP growth due to expected impact of fiscal
austerity measures on domestic demand in Czech economy.
"The third quarter GDP release is certainly good news for
the Czech crown."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE:
"This is a positive surprise. We do not know the details,
but I think this is mainly due to exports and a change in
inventories. Looking at the sectors, clearly there is an impact
of the fast-growing industry, where the impact of foreign demand
is the strongest.
"From the monetary policy point of view, the Czech economy
has recovered more markedly than had been expected, and
therefore the moment of an interest rate rise may come somewhat
sooner (then the bank forecasts)."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT BANK, PRAGUE:
"The figure looks very good, but we would need to know
details before trusting it 100 percent. We don't rule out that
there might be some downward revision when detailed figures are
released on Dec. 9. Until then I don't expect this figure to be
priced into the markets 100 percent."
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on []
- Slovak's Q3 GDP []
- Hungary's Q3 GDP []
- Romania's Q3 GDP []
- Poland's Q2 GDP []
LINKS:
- For further details on third quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
