PRAGUE, April 6 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose by
13.0 percent versus a year earlier in February, below
expectations of a 13.7 percent rise after revised 16.4 percent
growth in the previous month, the statistics bureau said on
Wednesday.
Data also showed foreign trade posted a 13.75 billion crown
($2.48 billion) surplus in February, smaller than analyst
forecasts of a 15.0 billion surplus.
The bureau also released foreign trade data adjusted for
transactions by non-residents showing a surplus of 1.99 billion
crowns, down from a revised 4.61 billion crowns surplus last
month.
The new methodology looks at change in ownership of goods
between residents and non-residents instead of taking into
account the cross-border move as the point when international
trade is conducted. It is calculated on the basis of
value-added, or sales, tax reports.
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KEY POINTS:
Details of February industrial output data......[]
Details of February foreign trade data..........[]
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was little changed at 24.38 to the
euro from 24.375 before the data.
COMMENTARY:
PETR DUFEK, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPT HEAD, CSOB
"Industry remains the key driver of the Czech economy,
driven by foreign demand. This is likely to last in the coming
months because new orders are growing..."
"The positive result of the industry make companies less
cautious when hiring new employees. The numbers show that the
Czech economy remains a double-speed one."
"On the one hand, we see the strengthening industry, on the
other hand services are lagging."
"Construction signals a positive turnaround. It is still
true that the results are affected by the very low comparative
bases from the last year."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The data are not surprising. Both trade balance and
industrial output within expectations, and I think it is mainly
because of the positive development especially in Germany where
IFO and PMI indices both point to lasting recovery in our
neighbour country."
"As for monetary policy, it is something that should support
the idea of a rate hike in the third quarter this year."
KEY DETAILS:
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
- Overall new orders rose 12.5 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 18.2 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, rose
5.6 percent year-on-year in February.
FOREIGN TRADE
- The trade balance surplus fell to 13.7 billion crowns in
February from revised 16.4 billion in January.
- Exports rose by 18.4 percent. Imports grew by 20.5
percent.
- In euro terms, imports rose by 28.9 percent, exports rose
by 26.6 percent.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak February trade figures []
- March consumer inflation []
{ID:nPRG004780]
- February producer prices figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on February industrial output, foreign
trade and other past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on
the Czech Statistical Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
