BRATISLAVA, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy grew 0.9
percent, more than expected, in the third quarter versus the
previous three months, down from 1.2 percent growth in the
April-June period, the Statistics Office said on Friday.
The heavily export-reliant economy continued to grow on an
annual basis -- for a third quarter running -- with 3.7 percent
growth, slowing from a revised 4.2 percent second quarter rise.
Analysts had expected growth of 0.6 percent from the
previous quarter and a 4.2 percent year-on-year expansion.
The Statistics Office will publish a detailed structure with
final data on December 2.
In a separate data release the Statistics Office data showed
consumer prices were flat on the month for a second month in a
row in October, putting the annual inflation rate at 1.0
percent, a tad below 1.1 percent seen in September.
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SLOVAK HEADLINE CPI OCT 10 SEPT 10 OCT 09
pct change mo/mo 0.0 0.0 0.1
pct change yr/yr +1.0 +1.1 +0.4
(Full October data table.............. [])
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ANALYST COMMENTS:
LUBOMIR KORSNAK, UNICREDIT BANK
"The year-on-year growth was below expectation, very likely
mainly due to a revision in the Q1 and Q2 growth rates. We need
to wait for detailed data (due Dec 2)."
"We expect that the economy was strongly driven by
government consumption, which is still high. There was no
positive contribution from net exports to the growth in the
third quarter."
"We expect quarter-on-quarter rise to slow it pace
gradually, as the economy's post-crisis catching up process is
concluded."
JURAJ VALACHY, TATRA BANKA
"The year-on-year growth was slightly below our expectations
but it is likely mainly due to a revision in previous data."
"The quarter-on-quarter rise is ok. The recovery remains
driven by industrial production. Domestic demand is still weak."
"We expect further slowing of the recovery in the fourth
quarter, as the recovery in Germany and western Europe slows,
but this does not mean a recession."
DETAILS
- For month-on-month inflation, prices of food and non-alcoholic
beverages fell by 0.3 percent in October, after being flat in
the previous month.
- Transportation prices edge down by 0.1 percent, after a 0.7
percent drop in September.
- Prices of alcoholic beverages and are flat for a second month
in a row.
- Housing, water, electricity, gas and other utility prices,
which have the strongest weight in the inflation index, were
flat, after a 0.1 percent increase in the previous month.
- Recreation and culture-related prices rise by 0.3 percent in
October after a 0.5 percent decline in the previous month.
BACKGROUND
- Slovakia, a euro zone member since January last year, has
been hit by the global economic downturn as demand for its
exports fades in its main western markets.
- The country's economic activity has been slowing from
record growth rates seen in 2007, when it posted 13.5 percent
GDP growth in the fourth quarter and 10.6 percent for the year.
- The full-year 2008 GDP growth was 6.2 percent.
- The central bank expected the economy to rise by 3.7
percent this year. It is more optimistic than the Finance
Ministry, with its forecast of a 3.2 percent GDP growth and the
European Commission with a 2.7 percent rise.
LINKS:
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website:
http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices .................<0#SKBMK=>
(Reporting by Martin Santa)
