INSTANT VIEW 4-Czech June trade shows higher surplus than fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade posted a
20.4 billion crown ($1.13 billion) surplus in June, well above
analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on Thursday.
                                
 It was the second largest ever monthly surplus after that
seen in March of this year.
                                
 The data showed a continued year-on-year decline in imports
and exports as the economy continued to suffer from a slump in
orders from Germany and other key west European markets.
                                
 But month-on-month, exports showed a small rise in
seasonally-adjusted terms.
                                
 Hungary also posted a trade surplus for June on Thursday, of
549.1 million euros, after a surplus of 478.9 million in May
<HUTRD=ECI>. The result was well above analysts expectations for
 a surplus of 448.5 million euros.
                                
 
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK)           June         May           June fcast
 balance               20.43        11.71            14.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
 exports              -15.1        -21.2              n/a
 imports              -19.3        -23.2              n/a

 (For full table of trade data, click on........[nPRA004689])

- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.6 percent in June from May, while imports slipped 1.5
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 22.2 percent and imports plunged
26.1 percent year-on-year in June.
- Exports of cars and machinery dropped 13.8 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector fell 18.7 percent.

 COMMENTARY:
                                
 MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA
                                
 "The story seems to confirm that exports keep falling, but
not at 20-plus percent as before, and then you have imports that
are falling even more. The reason behind it is there is drop in
the import of oil, and decrease in import of consumer goods."
                                
 "The trade balance might be even better this year than it
was last year just because imports are slowing more rapidly."
                                
 
                                
 HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
                                
 "Falling imports of oil and oil products helped the Czech
foreign trade to the second best result ever. Although oil
prices began to rise slightly already in the course of May, it
has still been possible to purchase oil cheap, possibly thanks
to the weakening dollar. 
                                
 "The drop in exports is lower compared with the previous
months but we will hardly find signals of recovery."
                                
 
                                
 RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
                                
 "Preliminary data on industrial output indicated that both
exports and imports may show less drastic annual decline in June
compared to contractions seen in previous two months. Indeed,
June foreign trade statistics shows some improvement in this
regard. 
                                
 "Therefore, also foreign trade offers some silver-lining:
pace of recession may decelerate in Czech economy in months to
come, which already seems to be the case of Western European
economies - and these two phenomenona are undoubtedly
interconnected. 
                                
 "Furthermore, foreign trade surplus improved more than
expected in June, so the release is positive news for the Czech
crown. Nevertheless, the market is watching mainly the Czech
National Bank board meeting today: we expect interest rates to
be left on hold, which would also be good news for the Czech
crown later today."
                                
 
                                
 DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
                                
 "We had upgraded our forecast after industrial output was
better than expected. While exports are improving because of
recovery in euro zone countries, imports are burdened by
declining domestic demand."
                                
 "Taking everything together, the trade balance is
improving... It could help improve the forecast for GDP in the
second quarter."
                                
 "It is another 'green shoot' for the Czech economy, so if we
can believe the situation is improving then the reasons for
monetary easing are declining."
                                
 
 MARKET RACTION:   
                                
 The crown currency rose to 25.935 to the euro <EURCZK=>
after the data from 25.96 earlier on Thursday.
 
 BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release              [ID:nL4373188]
- Slovak May trade figures                        [ID:nLA435192]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[ID:nLP385085]
                                
               [ID:nPRG001501] [ID:nLP908804] [ID:nPRA002636]

- For further details on June foreign trade and other past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo

- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ>
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- Czech money guide                                      <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                   <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates                      <CZKFRA>

 (Reporting by Jason Hovet)