(Repeats story published on Feb 9)
* Czech, Hungarian, Slovak Q4 GDP due out on Feb. 13
* Growth evaporates, Hungary contracts
* Czechs, Hungary seen in recession this year
* For a TABLE, click on []
By Mirka Krufova
PRAGUE (Reuters) - The global economic crisis knocked
central Europe to its knees in the fourth quarter of last year,
dashing hopes it could escape without pain, a Reuters poll
showed on Monday.
The Czech and Hungarian economies will slide into recession
this year, with extra government spending falling short of what
is needed to balance the impact of collapsing euro zone demand.
The poll showed the Hungarian economy shrank 1.3 percent
year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
Long a laggard in the region with a high fiscal gap and low
growth, Hungary has been one of the worst hit and went cap in
hand to the International Monetary Fund and the European Union
for a $25.1 billion rescue loan last year.
The Czech economy squeezed out 0.2 percent growth, the poll
showed. Regional star Slovakia, which joined the euro zone at
the start of the year, saw its economy slow although it still
grew 3 percent.
The data are due out at 9 a.m. (0800 GMT) in all three
countries on Friday. Euro zone data are also due out, with a
separate Reuters poll forecasting that at a 1.1 percent
year-on-year drop.
The poor GDP outlook has been signalled by plummeting export
and output figures across the region. In Hungary, industrial
output slumped by 19.6 percent year-on-year in December.
"Companies effectively halted production and we don't know
whether this continued in January, however, many things point to
a worsening," said Zsolt Kondrat, an analyst at MKB bank.
"Entire plants have been abandoned and their output will be
missing... I had a very bad scenario and the situation turned
out even slightly worse."
After a decade of luring thousands of foreign firms with
their cheap labour and proximity to core western markets,
central Europe has seen growth hit a wall due to vanishing
demand for the cars and electronics its factories produce.
2009 MUCH WORSE
This year is going to be much worse, the poll predicted, as
the EU newcomers see demand for goods fall off a cliff in
western Europe, their key market.
Hungarian GDP will drop by 3.2 percent this year, 11
analysts forecast in the survey. The Czech economy will shrink
by 0.6 percent, 18 respondents said.
"With demand for cars falling worldwide, Czech exports will
inevitably contract in 2009 and net exports will have a negative
contribution to GDP," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at
Generali PPF Asset Management.
The Czech central bank has slashed interest rates by 200
basis points to 1.75 percent as the outlook darkened, and
analysts expect more cuts.
Hungary has cut by 200 basis points to 9.5 percent since a
300 basis point tightening in October, but further easing there
may be limited more than in other countries by vulnerability of
the forint currency, which has seen a rapid drop.
Slovakia, which joined the euro this year, will be one of
the region's few economies to escape recession, growing by 2.2
percent, 10 analysts said, a strong performance by European
standards but a sharp drop from estimated 6.8 percent last year.
"With a recession in the eurozone, government anti-crisis
packages can only somewhat soften the slowdown of the Slovak
economy," said ING Bank analyst Eduard Hagara.
All the central European countries have held back from
emulating the approach seen in the biggest EU states, and
refrained from throwing billions of euros into their economies
-- partly out of conviction and partly out of necessity, due to
exploding risk premia on their debt.
Slovakia has announced a 332 million euro economic stimulus
package, equal to about half a percent of GDP, by redirecting
government spending.
The Czech government has been working on measures like
faster write-offs and social insurance cuts that may reach 2
percent of GDP.
Hungary announced on Sunday it would cut budget spending by
200 billion forints ($896.2 million) in order to keep its budget
gap at 2.6 percent of GDP, and is expected to announce a 1,000
billion forint tax reshuffle meant tp help the economy.
(Additional reporting by Sandor Peto in Hungary and Martin
Santa in Bratislava, writing by Jan Lopatka; editing by Patrick
Graham)
