PRAGUE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The Czech economy grew by a real
4.6 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter, the
statistical bureau said on Wednesday, slightly above the 4.5
percent flash estimate released in August.
The Czech expanion lagged the boom in neighbouring Slovakia,
which posted 7.6 percent growth in April-June, and Poland's 5.8
percent, but it was well ahead of regional laggard Hungary,
which reported 2.0 percent growth.
The statistical bureau also raised the first-quarter growth
estimate to 5.4 percent from 5.1 percent.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(pct change) Q2/08 Q1/08 Q2/07 2007
Real change yr/yr 4.6 (4.5) 5.4 (5.1) 6.8 6.6
NOTE. GDP up 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter when adjusted
for seasonal factors and the difference in working days.
CENTRAL BANK FORECAST: Full-year GDP growth of 4.1 percent,
released in its most recent projection unveiled in August.
(For full table of Q2 GDP data................[])
- Growth was driven mainly by foreign trade, which added 4.0
percentage points to the overall growth figure.
- Total final consumption grew by 2.8 percent, and gross
capital formation fell 4.7 percent, due to inventories. Exports
grew 13.5 percent while imports rose by 8.9 percent.
COMMENTARY:
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA:
"Czech GDP continues to decelerate as expected."
"It's due to low consumption which could accelerate in the
fourth quarter.
"Companies are curbing production due to a decline in orders
from abroad."
"I expect full year growth at 4 percent and 2009 average
growth at 3.4 percent."
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK:
"The economy has gone beyong the peak and is slowing. At the
end of the fourth quarter I expect growth of only 3 percent,
which is a five-year minimum. The CNB (central bank) views the
economy similarly -- it also expects a significant slowdown. The
slowing economy plays into another cut in interest rates. By the
end of the year we expect one more cut to 3.25 percent."
MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA:
"The numbers came mostly in line with expectations. As for
the structure, demand remains weak due to high inflation and GDP
is driven by foreign trade."
"There's also a negative impact of fix investment due to
slowdown in the euro zone."
"I expect demand will pick up in future as prices decline
and the role of foreign trade will weaken."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE:
"We can see figures pushed higher, so it's slightly
positive. Together with industrial production data, it can be
slightly positive for the Czech crown. But it's not sufficient
enough to change the view on monetary policy. We keep the view
that interest rates can be cut once more by the end of the
year."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown at 24.775 to the euro <EURCZK=> from 24.750 ahead of
the figures.
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on..................................[]
- Slovak Q2 GDP..................................[]
- Poland's Q2 GDP................................[]
- Hungary's Q2 GDP...............................[]
LINKS:
- For further details on second quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Compiled by Jana Lopatka)
