* WHAT: April foreign trade, industrial output, retail sales
* WHEN: June 7 at 9:00 a.m. (0700GMT)
* REUTERS FORECAST: Foreign trade surplus median forecast
for 13 billion crowns ($621.4 million) in April vs 18.3 billion
in March. Industrial output median forecast for 10 percent yr/yr
growth vs 10.2 percent in March, retail sales median forecast
for -1.8 percent yr/yr vs 3.9 percent rise in March.
Fifteen analysts participated in the survey and the range on
foreign trade surplus was 10-18 billion. Retail sales estimates
ranged from a 3.0 percent growth to a 4.1 percent contraction.
Output growth predictions ranged from 6.5 percent to 12.8
percent.
FACTORS TO WATCH: Both foreign trade <CZFTB=ECI> and
industrial output <CZIPY=ECI> readings are expected positive
thanks to the low comparative base and the lasting effect of
west European governments' stimulus, which economists expect to
evaporate soon.
Czech PMI earlier this week showed manufacturing was holding
firmly up but there were concerns austerity measures to stem
European debt could kill a fragile recovery. []
The central bank and many analysts forecast a double dip
recovery for the small and open economy, the second, mild dip
coming in the second half of the year, once the effect of the
stimulus subsides fully.
A sustained, demand-led growth should come at the beginning
of the next year, but domestic demand will be weak and will
revive very slowly, analysts said.
"Demand is still missing, whether consumer or investment
demand," said CSOB analyst Petr Dufek. "We do not see a quick
revival in demand, there is a surplus of capacity in the
manufacturing sector... consumer demand will be dampened by a
high unemployment and a freeze in wage growth."
Retail sales <CZRSLY=ECI> are seen contracting, after a 3.9
percent expansion in March, which analysts said was only a
one-off occurrence.
Analysts predicted the main drag in April were car sales,
which in March rose thanks to seasonal sales.
"Taking into account our outlook for continued weakness in
private consumption, retail sales will swing again into red
numbers in the coming months," said Stanislava Pravdova, an
emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank.
She said the victory of centre-right parties in an election
last weekend meant things were not looking up for retail sales
due to planned fiscal austerity measures, likely to be
implemented by these parties if they form a government.
MARKET REACTION: The foreign trade balance, which remained
in surplus in the whole of 2009 when the overall economy
contracted by 4.1 percent, has bolstered the crown <EURCZK=>.
The unit has been the best performer in the region so far this
year.
Analysts expect a limited market reaction from the data next
week as markets are now driven by global sentiment rather than
domestic data, which are seen as generally solid and
unsurprising.
For Czech March macro preview table: []
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova and Jana Mlcochova)
