Aug 6 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty<EURPLN=> and the Czech
crown<EURCZK=> are set to add to their recent gains in the next
12 months, while Hungary's forint<EURHUF=> is seen retreating in
the next months, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Thursday.
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ON REGION
David Nemeth, ING Bank, Budapest
"The market is over-optimistic; what has happened in the
past three months is an over-reaction. Around October, before
the end of the year I expect a selling wave globally. The
firming (of CEE currencies) has surprised with its pace, the
previous falls were very quick, too, and the retreat can be
rapid as well ... But the overall trend is a strengthening."
Zsolt Kondrat, MKB Bank, Budapest
"The story that analysts have had in their mind in the past
months was that the region's currencies must retreat after some
time. But exchange rates can move a lot in a short time, the
timing of the retreat is uncertain, therefore analysts often do
not dare to forecast big moves for a given period. I think
global markets are too optimistic at the moment, and a negative
correction will come."
ON ZLOTY
Stuart Bennett, Credit Agricole, London
"Budget concerns may weigh on the currency. But better risk
appetite and relative growth out-performance helps the PLN."
Radoslaw Cholewinski, Noble Bank, Warsaw
"The zloty remains in the appreciation trend, driven by a
decreasing risk aversion and an improving perception of Poland's
economy (cf. recent updates of GDP growth forecasts)."
Jakub Borowski, Invest-Bank, Warsaw
"In the short run a moderate correction, driven by higher
global risk aversion, is quite likely. At the end of the year
the zloty should return to the medium-run appreciation trend."
Maja Goettig, Bank BPH, Warsaw
"There is room for the zloty to strengthen as it is
undervalued compared to economic fundamentals (Q2 GDP dynamics
will probably again be in the positive territory) due to
investors earlier placing it in one basket with currencies of
other CEE countries in worse economic conditions (e.g.
Hungary)."
ON CROWN:
Stuart Bennett, Credit Agricole, London
"Political uncertainty ahead of Oct. election is not a
helpful backdrop."
Helena Horska, Raiffeisenbank, Prague
"For 3Q09 we expect CZK correction because of enhanced
political risk and still relatively weak economic fundamentals
compared to Poland, for example."
Radomir Jac, Generali PPF Asset Management, Prague
"In our baseline scenario we assume that the global economy
already saw its worst in 1H 2009 and that risk aversion
therefore will not be growing in rest of 2009. In such scenario
we therefore do not see reason for any significant weakening of
the CZK. Still, we would not be surprised to see a correction
after recent CZK appreciation - a correction that would send the
CZK closer to 26.00/EUR in near term, i.e. in rest of 3Q 2009.
In scenario where GDP returns to growth in 2010 and the CNB
starts to increase its interest rates, the CZK should firm
further in 2010."
ON FORINT
Stuart Bennett, Credit Agricole, London
"Oversold in 2008 as credit fears mounted, the forint is now
at risk of being overbought. The economy is still very weak and
a strong forint doesn't help."
Zsolt Kondrat, MKB Bank, Budapest
"Too aggressive (central bank) rate cuts may come. Even if
the cuts are not aggressive, any deterioration in the global
sentiment could lead to forint weakening."
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
