June 4 (Reuters) - The European Union's main emerging
currencies are seen strengthening in the next six months, led by
Poland's zloty. Below are comments from some of the 39 analysts
polled in the survey.
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ON REGION
Radomir Jac, Generali PPF Asset Management, Prague
"The strategic view remains positive, as we believe that
regional currencies will benefit from gradually improving global
economic picture, which should be supportive to appetite for
riskier assets, including the Central and South-East European
currencies."
Joanna Pluta, TMS Broker, Warsaw
"Regional currencies, with the zloty among them, should in
general benefit from falling risk aversion and a search for
higher yielding assets. Risk appetite will rise as the global
economy shows more and more signs of stabilisation..."
ON ZLOTY
Maja Goettig, Bank BPH, Warsaw
"Sentiment on global markets is one of key factors behind
the zloty performance. Continued gains on world stock markets
and higher risk appetite would support currencies in CEE region,
including the zloty. That said, the zloty is under significant
weakening pressure from the domestic general government sector
situation."
"...On the other hand, any potential pressure for excessive
weakening of the zloty should be successfully counteracted by
the Polish government by exchanging EU-funds on the FX market (I
would not expect to see EUR-PLN crossing the level of 4.80 this
year). The IMF flexible credit loan recently granted to Polish
government is also a strong weapon against potential speculation
for deeper zloty weakening."
ON CZECH CROWN
Jan Cermak, CSOB, Prague
"Besides the recent speculation about Latvia's devaluation
and concerns hanging around, we expect some correction in risk
assets and emerging markets, which could send the crown to
weaker territory in the one- and three-month horizon."
"But we think the crown could outperform (CEE peers) in this
environment."
David Marek, Patria Finance, Prague
"CEE currency markets calmed down recently... However, Czech
koruna and other CEE currencies can be shaken by a possible
devaluation of Latvian lat and contagion of other markets in the
region. If this risk should materialize, the EURCZK can swing to
28.0 or even higher. If situation in Latvia is solved by IMF
money or other means, EURCZK can keep in the range 26.50-27.0 in
months to come. Our basic scenario, then, sees a mild
appreciation by the end of the year, when macroeconomic
situation should start to improve."
Nigel Rendell, RBC Capital Markets, London
"Remarkably stable, but some downside risk for the CZK,
assuming further rate cuts. Uncertain politics lurks in the
background."
ON LEU
Vlad Muscalu, ING Bank, Bucharest
"In the short-run we favour a neutral call provided
international market mood does not record a sharp swing. Going
forward, we believe the (Romanian central bank's interest rate)
easing cycle will continue. Key rate cuts are likely to continue
to be coupled with liquidity injections and eventual reserve
requirements cuts and these are likely to weigh on the leu."
ON FORINT
David Nemeth, ING Bank, Budapest
"The forint at 275-280 (versus the euro) can be the
appropriate exchange rate in the next 12 months, although we may
see some swings. But the assessment of the region have improved
since February-March, therefore the earlier levels at 320 are
unlikely to be visited. Also, a number of (state spending cut)
measures have been taken in Hungary. Optimism in international
markets will not be huge, it will increase and decrease in waves
in the next six-nine months. Then Hungary will have elections,
which mixes further uncertainty into the picture."
Nigel Rendell, RBC Capital Markets, London
"HUF supported by high interest rates, but by nothing else!
NBH easing, deteriorating fiscal position, recession etc all
point to weaker HUF."
(Additional reporting by Jason Hovet and Mirka Krufova in
Prague)
(Reporting by Sandor Peto)
