* WHAT: Czech Nov CPI on Dec 9, trade on Dec 7
* CPI seen swinging up, export drop slows
* For a TABLE with forecasts, click on [
]
By Jason Hovet and Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Czech consumer prices edged up in November, putting the year-on-year index firmly into positive territory after a one-off dip below zero and narrowing chances of an interest rate cut, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The poll showed a drop in exports continued to slow in October, helping the overall trade balance as well as production. The poll of 14 analysts and analyst groups produced a median forecast of a 0.1 percent monthly rise in shop-shelf prices in November, after a 0.2 percent drop a month earlier.
That would put the year-on-year reading at 0.4 percent, up from -0.2 percent a month before and a little below a 0.6 percent rise in the euro zone. "We expect base effects of food and fuel prices to push Czech annual inflation to 0.4 percent in November, which means that the data should confirm that October's decline of headline inflation below zero was only a one-off event," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF Asset Management.
"If our expectation for November inflation materialises, then the wing in central bank's board that has opposed calls for interest rate cut at the early November meeting will receive arguments for sticking to their position at the upcoming meeting in mid-December also." The bank forecast 0.1 percent year-on-year price growth for November in its latest quarterly outlook.
The central bank's board voted 4-3 against a proposed 25 basis point cut in the main two-week repo rate last month, outvoting Governor Zdenek Tuma for the second time in a row and leaving the rate at 1.25 percent.
The board will meet on policy on Dec 16, the last rate-setting meeting this year.
The majority on the board leant toward the cautious side although the bank's staff forecast sees inflation picking up to 2.4 percent at the end of next year. That prediction includes a one-off impact of a sales tax hike, but also incorporates lower interest rates.
TRADE IMPROVES
The Czech Republic is highly dependent on exports of manufactured goods, mainly to Germany, and a revival there has driven an improvement in industrial output and trade.
The poll showed a median forecast of an 8 billion crown ($467.3 million) trade surplus for October, helped by a slowdown in the fall of exports to 9 percent year-on-year.
A flash industrial output data released last week showed production dropped 7.3 percent year-on-year, the best result in a year. [
]The purchasing manager's index (PMI), measuring sentiment in manufacturing industry, crept up into the positive area last month, the first time since June 2008. [
]The statistical office will also release detailed third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Dec. 9, after preliminary data showing 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter growth and 4.1 percent decline from a year ago. ((prague.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: jan.lopatka.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420-224 190 474; editing by Chris Pizzey))