INSTANT VIEW 3-Slovak output returns to growth, trade in surplus

                                
 BRATISLAVA, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Slovak industrial output rose
by 1.5 percent year-on-year in November, showing its first
increase since September 2008, following a revised annual drop
of 5.6 percent in October, the Slovak Statistics Office said on
Monday.
                                
 The Office said foreign trade balance showed a surplus of
259.4 million euro in November, compared with a revised 352.6
million euro surplus in October, with exports returning to
growth for the first time since September 2008.
 
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 KEY POINTS:
 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT      NOV 09          NOV 09 FCAST
 pct change yr/yr        +1.5              +2.0
===============================================================
 FOREIGN TRADE          NOV 09    NOV 09 FCAST
 (mln euro)
 Balance                +259.4     +83.0
 (for the full Nov table pls see .... [ID:nPRG00386]
===============================================================
                                
 
                                
 ANALYST COMMENT:
                                
 EDUARD HAGARA, ING BANK, ANALYST
                                
 on industrial production:
                                
 "I expected November industrial output to return to growth,
there is an annual (comparative) base-effect behind it. The
industrial production, compared with September and October rose,
but not significanly, it sustains its pace."
                                
 "It is positive that businesses stick to an increased
production."
                                
 "As for the fourth quarter GDP data - compared with the
third quarter - I do not expect to see a significant rise,
rather a sustained growth, stability."
                                
 
                                
 on foreign trade:
                                
 "Following previous declines in the pace of exports, we now
expect an improvement - trends are similar with the industrial
production, it goes hand in hand as higher production means
improving exports."
                                
 
                                
 MICHAL MUSAK, SLOVENSKA SPORITELNA, ANALYST
                                
 - on industrial output:
                                
 "The low (comparative) annual base-effect from the last year
is visible. Industrial output started to fall markedly last year
(in 2008). We will see positive data in the coming months."
                                
 "The industrial production, on an adjusted basis, is now
some 20 percent about its lows seen in the previous months."
                                
 "We can see effects of the economy recovery in the euro zone
and in Slovakia here and future data will also be positive."
                                
 
                                
 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT:
- the Statistics Office said industrial production rose by 0.1
percent on the month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in
November.
- Manufacturing production, which has the strongest weighting in
the index, rises by 2.6 percent on the year in November -- its
first increase since since September 2008 -- after a 6.2 percent
decline in the previous month.
- Within manufacturing output, car production is up by 16.2
percent from a year ago -- showing its first growth since
September 2008 -- compared with a 10.1 percent drop in October.
- Electronics and optical goods are down by 2.2 percent,
compared with a 15.4 percent decline in October.
- Mining rises by 6.8 percent, after a 5.6 percent increase in
October.
- Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water
is down by 5.7 percent, compared with a drop of 3.2 percent in
October.
                                
 
                                
BACKGROUND:
 - Industrial output rose for the first time in 14 months in
Slovakia, which entered the euro zone last January.
 - Slovakia's export-oriented economy has been affected by the
global financial crisis as demand for its products, mainly cars
and electronics goods, slows on main export markets.
 - Slovakia expects a full-year 5.7 percent economic contraction
in 2009, with the recession curbing state budget revenues and
increasing government borrowing needs.
                                
 
                                
 FOREIGN TRADE:
- The October balance was revised to a surplus of 352.6 million
euro from a previously reported surplus of 225.3 million euro.
- The cumulative January-November trade balance shows a surplus
of 1.4 billion euro, compared with a 391 million euro deficit
for the same period last year.
- The Statistics Office does not release a breakdown of trade
data until next month. 
                                
 
LINKS:
- For further details on November industrial output and other
past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Slovak
Statistics Office's website:
                                
 http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices .................<0#SKBMK=>