(Repeats story published on July 2)
* WHAT: Czech trade on July 7, CPI July 9, industry July 13
* May foreign trade to show surplus, export volume poor
* For TABLE with complete forecasts, click on []
By Mirka Krufova and Jana Mlcochova
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Czech May foreign trade data will likely
show a higher surplus than a year ago but both exports and
imports fell sharply, pointing to a protracted slump in
production, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The median forecast in a poll of 13 analysts showed May
foreign trade <CZ/ECON04> <CZ/ECON15> would record a 11.5
billion crown ($631.9 million) surplus, little changed from
11.95 billion in April and bigger than the 9.7 billion surplus
for the month last year.
"The export performance is likely to suffer further...
however, the high sensitivity of imports to exports is likely to
keep the trade balance in surplus," said Jaromir Sindel, chief
economist at Citibank in Prague.
A key part of imports to the Czech Republic is targeted for
further manufacturing and re-exports and as weak demand cuts
overall exports and companies produce less, imports shrink as
well.
"The dip in (May) exports should be bigger than 20 percent
as indicated by the preliminary industrial output estimate,"
said Jiri Skop, an analyst at Komercni Banka.
Imports should sink even deeper than in April, he said,
pulled down by cheap fuels.
April imports plunged 26 percent, the sharpest contraction
since January 1993 and exports fell 22 percent, the second
steepest drop in the period. []
Preliminary May output data showed on Tuesday new orders
slumped 27.6 percent year on year, including a 26.7 percent drop
in foreign orders, highlighting how much the small and open
economy is being hammered by the lack of demand from the
recession-hit euro zone. Overall industrial production fell 21.7
percent year on year. []
Czechs have avoided a major financial market meltdown
although the real economy has hit the wall after euro zone
demand waned.
Exports equal about 70 percent of the country's gross
domestic product, being the backbone of growth as illustrated by
the miserable May output.
PRICES STILL LITTLE CONCERN
The median forecast in the poll showed June year-on-year
inflation at 1.2 percent, down from 1.3 percent in May.
"Although Czech annual inflation has most likely declined
further in June, primary thanks to food prices, it is expected
to remain above the central bank's forecast and the positive gap
between the actual inflation and the forecast may widen," said
Radomir Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF Asset Management.
The central bank kept interest rates steady at its last
meeting on June 25 at a record low of 1.5 percent and said
higher than expected core inflation was among main
pro-inflationary risks.
Jac said the development of inflation is likely to prevent
the bank from further monetary easing.
(Editing by Toby Chopra)
