* WHAT: Fourth quarter GDP flash estimate
* WHEN: 0800 GMT, Feb. 14
* GDP growth seen slowing to 8.9 pct year on year from the
third quarter's 9.4 pct
By Martin Santa
BRATISLAVA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Slovak economic growth
probably slowed in the fourth quarter of 2007 due to worse trade
balance, but the rise still remained one of the highest in the
European Union, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
The survey of eleven analysts showed a median forecast of
8.9 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth
quarter, which would be below the record quarterly rise of 9.4
percent seen in the July-September period.
Analysts saw economy growing by 9.0 percent for the whole of
2007, which would be the fastest full-year growth ever, after an
8.5 percent rise in 2006.
The Statistics Office will release the preliminary
fourth-quarter flash GDP estimate on Feb. 14. The full-year data
will be published on March 4.
"Dynamics of the net exports' contribution in the fourth
quarter was probably slightly lower than in the third quarter,"
said Maria Valachyova, senior analyst at Slovenska Sporitelna.
"Growth structure was balanced... driven by household
consumption, investments and net exports," she added.
Slovakia has had one of the highest GDP growth rates in the
EU in the past few years, fuelled by booming car and electronics
industries and reviving household consumption after years of
belt-tightening reforms.
The central bank said economic growth had not created
inflationary pressures last year, and it did not see a danger of
economic overheating this year and in 2009.
Most analysts concurred, saying growth structure was healthy
in 2007 and that economy was not running above its potential.
"We believe that growth of (output) potential, related to
foreign direct investment inflows, is behind the high economic
rise," said ING Bank analyst Eduard Hagara.
Slovak economic growth is expected to slow down in 2008,
with the central bank forecasting a 7.7 percent rise, and some
analysts saw external risks for the small and open economy.
"We believe there is a strong downside risk in external
demand, which was the main driver of growth in 2007," said
Jaromir Sindel, the Prague-based economist at Citibank.
"However, we expect household consumption to continue
rebounding in 2008, owing to stable rise in real wages and an
increase in employment," Sindel said.
** FOR TABLE WITH FORECASTS, CLICK ON []
(Writing by Peter Laca and Martin Santa; editing by David
Christian-Edwards)
