* Unrest sets high floor for oil prices -analyst
* Dollar at 29-year low supports oil, gold
* U.S. oil to rise to $114.90/bbl -technicals
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* Coming Up: U.S. March new home sales m/m`; 1230 GMT
By Manash Goswami
SINGAPORE, April 25 (Reuters) - Crude futures rose on Monday
as violence in Syria and Yemen escalated over the weekend,
boosting fears that the intensifying unrest may disrupt oil
supplies as it spills over into other countries in the Middle
East and North Africa.
NYMEX crude for June delivery <CLc1> was up 73 cents at $113
a barrel by 0213 GMT, after settling up 84 cents at $112.29 last
week. Brent crude <LCOc1> rose 56 cents to $124.55 a barrel.
"There is no question about it -- Middle East and North
Africa continue to be the key factors," said Victor Shum, an
analyst at Purvin & Gertz. "Violence has spread beyond Libya to
Syria and Yemen and that has set a high floor for oil prices."
Oil may continue its uptrend this week since there is no
quick resolution in sight to the unrest, while gains will be
capped on concerns of the negative impact high prices may have
on demand and the global economy. The twin factors may help
ensure prices stay within a narrow range, with increases limited
to $10-$15 a barrel, Shum said.
Prolonged protests and looming concern over further
disruptions will keep markets on edge since fuel demand in key
consumers, such as China and India, continues to rise.
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia needs to pump at least 9
million barrels per day (bpd) of crude for the next few years
and is considering boosting capacity to meet rising demand,
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) said in a report, citing
Saudi sources this week. []
Technicals showed that U.S. oil was expected to rise to
$114.90 per barrel, based on a double-bottom pattern. The two
bottoms formed around $105.50, and the neckline is at $110.09.
With the current price much higher above the neckline, the
pattern has been confirmed valid, Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao said.
SYRIA, YEMEN
Syrian security forces and gunmen loyal to President Bashar
al-Assad shot dead at least nine civilians on Sunday in a sweep
on the coastal town of Jabla, the Syrian human rights
organisation Sawasiah said. []
Yemen's veteran president Ali Abdullah Saleh has struck a
defiant tone in an interview a day after his government said he
had accepted a Gulf Arab plan to hand over power within weeks.
Saleh has faced down three months of street protests as well
as pressure to go from his main backers Saudi Arabia and the
United States, and opposition groups fear his verbal acceptance
of the plan may be no more than a tactic. []
Highlighting the possibility of the unrest intensifying and
spreading, some 200 Shi'ites protested in Saudi Arabia's
oil-producing east on Friday. The gathering in the town of
Awwamiya defied a call by leading Shi'ite clerics a day earlier
for an end to two months of protests in the conservative
kingdom's Eastern Province, in an apparent bow to government
pressure. []
NATO forces flattened a building inside Muammar Gaddafi's
Bab al-Aziziyah compound early on Monday, in what a press
official from Gaddafi's government said was an attempt on the
Libyan leader's life. []
WEAK DOLLAR
Another factor supporting oil prices is the weak dollar. The
dollar was vulnerable on Monday, hitting a fresh 29-year low
against the Australian dollar under the weight of its low
interest rates.
"It is one of the factors supporting the turnaround in oil,"
Shum said. "Oil is a good hedge."
The weak dollar helped boost spot gold to a record of
$1,513.70 an ounce, extending the record-breaking rally to the
seventh consecutive session. U.S. gold futures <GCcv1> also hit
a record high, at $1,514.50 an ounce. The most active silver
contract on COMEX <SIcv1> rose to a 31-year high at $47.84 an
ounce.
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
