PRAGUE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales rose by 5.0
percent year-on-year in November, double the analysts' forecast,
data showed on Tuesday.
Markets had expected an annual growth of 2.5 percent.
The statistics office said the data was mostly influenced by
sales of cars and one extra working day.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Nov Oct Nov forecast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) 5.0 -0.7 2.5
Details of Nov retail sales data................[]
COMMENTARY:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The result is a significant surprise, but it is mainly due
to car sales. Without this segment, retail sales grew by a much
slower pace and are developing like in the previous months."
"There is no evidence that there is improvement in consumer
demand that would lead to a significant growth in GDP. I think
the economy will continue to rely on foreign trade, investments
or inventories, but household demand and government spending
will stagnate or fall."
"This figure is neutral and does not change the interest
rate outlook."
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK:
"This is the highest growth since June. There was
unexpectedly large interest in cars and winter tyres but sales
of regular consumer goods rose as well.
"Christmas shopping was getting on track in November. One
extra working day helped as well.
"Although the November result buoys optimism, we will see
what results the end of 2010 and early 2011 will bring. December
unemployment figures warn against too high expectation."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"November retail sales grew a real 5 percent and indicated
that consumers at least found some spending appetite. The car
segment played the main role, while the rest of retail grew only
moderately.
"In light of cars playing the main role in November sales,
it does not make sense to overplay this. Demand-led inflation
pressures are not appearing.
"The same conclusion could come in December. Demand is
growing only slowly, inflation is rising due to more expensive
fuels and food. A consumer boom is not happening. Yet it is very
likely that the central bank will raise rates much sooner than
presented."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown firms to 24.52 <EURCZK=> from 25.563 ahead of the
data. It trades up 0.4 percent on the day.
DETAILS:
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car
sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars
dipped by a real 0.3 percent month-on-month and rose 3.4 percent
year-on-year in November.
- Unadjusted retail sales excluding cars, car repairs and fuels
rose 2.1 percent year-on-year.
- Unadjusted car and car maintenance sales rose by a real 15.2
percent year-on-year.
BACKGROUND:
- December consumer inflation []
- November industrial output []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] []
LINKS:
- For further details on November retail sales and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Writing by Jason Hovet)
