(Repeats story published on June 30)
* WHAT: June consumer inflation, unemployment
* WHEN: July 8, 0700 GMT
* Consumer prices seen up 0.4 percent month-on-month, up 7.0
percent year-on-year. End-June unemployment seen at 4.9 percent.
By Mirka Krufova and Jana Mlcochova
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Czech consumer price inflation rebounded
in June, fuelled by soaring fuel prices as well as the delayed
effect of an excise tax hike in January, a Reuters poll showed
on Monday.
Thirteen analysts forecast a 0.4 percent month-on-month
increase in the consumer price index (CPI) <CZCPI=ECI>, a broad
gauge of inflation targeted by the central bank (CNB).
The consensus forecast put annual inflation <CZCPIY=ECI> at
7.0 percent, up from 6.8 percent in May but below a nine-year
peak of 7.5 percent seen in January.
Analysts said the June inflation rise would follow
fast-rising fuel prices as well as growth in cigarette prices as
shops run out of stocks of older, lower-taxed packs.
Next month's data series will start with May foreign trade
data on July 4, while inflation and unemployment numbers are due
out on July 8.
Analysts gave a median forecast for the trade surplus at 6.5
billion crowns, down from 8.3 billion in April. Trade will be
closely watched for the impact of the record strong crown
currency and weakening demand in the euro zone on Czech exports.
Czech central bankers have insisted the spike in inflation
was temporary and to a large extent caused by one-off changes in
taxes and regulated prices, but discussed raising interest rates
at a meeting on June 26 and some analysts believe one more hike
will come in the third quarter.
Six members of the seven-strong CNB policy board voted to
keep the cost of money unchanged at a six year high of 3.75
percent <CZCBIR=ECI> while only one dissenter called for a 25
basis point hike to keep a lid on inflation expectations.
Czech rates are the lowest around central Europe and 25
basis points below the euro zone where the European Central Bank
is widely believed to deliver a quarter-point hike.
After the Czech meeting, CNB Governor Zdenek Tuma said
inflation may rise slightly above 7 percent over the summer but
reiterated the bank's view that price growth would ease toward
the bank's 3 percent target by early next year [].
"Growing energy prices are likely to keep Czech inflation in
the 7 percent area also in July but we believe this will be a
local peak," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF
Asset Management.
"We should get ready for higher inflation in June and July
but as long as this is supposed to be only a temporary increase,
the central bank should look through such volatility when
setting its monetary policy decisions."
He said the Czech economy would "sooner or later" start to
feel the impact of the strong crown.
The crown has gained 16.8 percent year-on-year against the
euro to a new high of 23.82 late on Friday, fuelled by the
country's strong exports and the currency's safe haven status.
TABLE OF FORECASTS FOR DATA DUE OUT IN JULY .. []
(Additional reporting by Mirka Krufova; Editing by Malcolm
Whittaker)
