(Adds quotes from Rostowski interview)
By Pawel Florkiewicz
KRYNICA, Poland, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Poland aims to join the
euro in 2011, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday,
making his firmest statement yet on when the EU's largest former
communist economy could adopt the common currency.
Markets had pushed back expectations for when the Poles
could enter the euro bloc till 2013 or later and the zloty and
other Central European currencies surged after Tusk's speech,
made at the opening of Poland's biggest annual economic forum.
But many analysts remained cautious on assessing the weight
of Tusk's commitment, saying they would wait for more detail on
how the government plans to overcome remaining political, legal
and procedural obstacles.
"For the first time, standing here in front of you, I take
advantage of the occasion ... to formulate precisely one of our
main goals," Tusk told the forum in the southern mountain resort
of Krynica.
"Our goal (to adopt the euro) is 2011. This is our
government's goal. This is a difficult but feasible task."
Tusk's economically liberal government had until now
refrained from giving a firm target date for joining the
15-nation euro zone.
Slovakia, which like Poland joined the EU in 2004, is set to
become the 16th member of the zone next January, but political
apathy and high inflation have been seen holding up the arrival
of other Central and Eastern Europe's fast-growing economies.
The latest Reuters poll of economists saw Poland joining in
2013 along with the Czech Republic and Latvia, one year after it
predicted tiny Estonia would enter.
By close of trade, the zloty <PLN=> <EURPLN=> had gained 1.6
percent against the euro. Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> and the
Czech crown <EURCZK=> both rose more than one percent intraday.
Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski has said Poland could
potentially take the initial step of putting the zloty in the
ERM-2 currency grid next year, followed by euro adoption in 2011
or 2012.
Euro candidate currencies must spend a minimum of two years
in ERM-2 before they can adopt the euro, and past experience has
shown countries need closer to three to prepare from the moment
of joining the currency grid.
In an interview given on Wednesday before Tusk's remarks,
Rostowski told Reuters Poland was making good progress towards
meeting the criteria for eventual euro membership.
He also said it is better for a country to be in an easing
monetary mode and to have interest rates close to those of the
European Central Bank for ERM-2 entry. Poland's main interest
rate is now at 6 percent against 4.25 percent in the eurozone.
CREDIBILITY
Asked whether Poland would need to enter ERM-2 next year,
Tusk told reporters: "The calendar is precisely set by the
procedures. The budget will add to our credibility as far as the
perspective for adopting the euro goes."
On Tuesday, the government approved a 2009 draft budget that
slashes the deficit by almost half. To adopt the euro, a country
must run a budget deficit of no more than three percent of GDP.
Tusk's comments come amid a legal debate on whether his
coalition government will need to find additional votes in
parliament to change the constitution before adopting the euro.
The constitution says it is the sole right of the Polish central
bank to set monetary policy and issue money.
Tusk said he would need public support for joining the euro.
"I believe that in the future we will gain such acceptance.
I am not saying a referendum but this has to be for the people,
not only the government," he said.
Rostowski told Reuters a referendum on euro entry was an
option for Poland.
Central bank Monetary Policy Council members Dariusz Filar
and Marian Noga said after Tusk's statement that entry in 2011
was technically possible, although Filar cautioned it could be
the second half rather than the beginning of the year.
"This is a very important statement (by Tusk) which has
strengthened the zloty but I would be cautious," said Bank BPH
economist Adam Antoniak. "Theoretically euro adoption is
possible in 2011, but technically the probability is small."
Other analysts also struck a cautious note.
"Given the economic uncertainties and distress, we find it
highly unlikely that the European Central Bank and the European
Commission would accept a swift Polish euro adoption," said Lars
Rasmussen of Danske Bank in a note.
"We think that euro adoption in 2012-2013 is more likely."
(Additional reporting by Kuba Jaworowski and Adrian Krajewski;
Writing by Patrick Graham and Gareth Jones; Editing by Ruth
Pitchford)
