* For poll data click on <EMUPOLL30>
* Estonia euro adoption seen brought forward to 2012
* Poland euro entry date pushed back a year to 2014
* Croatia next in to EU in 2012
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Estonia will be the next country
to join the euro zone, becoming the bloc's 17th member, as it
pushes through budget reforms to bring forward its date for
dumping the kroon to 2012, a Reuters poll found.
The new date for the Baltic state to join the currency bloc,
based on a survey of over 30 emerging market experts taken over
the past week, is a year sooner than predicted in an August poll
and it may pass the European Union's Maastricht tests for entry
even earlier.
"There is a good chance for Estonia to join the euro zone in
2011, if the budget deficit is Maastricht-compliant in 2009,"
said Ralf Wiegert at IHS Global Insight.
Estonia's central bank also said last month it could embrace
the euro in 2011 after meeting the adoption criteria next spring
because its budget is in a much better position than other
potential members thanks to saving money during the boom years.
Along with other criteria, countries seeking euro membership
must maintain a government deficit below 3 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) and the poll found controlling budget
deficits and inflation the biggest hurdles facing the majority
of potential members.
Lithuania, which had been due to adopt the common currency
back in 2007, was forced to abandon its entry plan due to high
inflation and it faces a budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP
this year and 8.5 percent in 2010.
Neighbouring Latvia foresees a deficit of 9.5 percent this
year and next and the poll predicted the two countries wouldn't
adopt the euro until 2014.
The potential joiners from Eastern Europe, which together
make up about a fifth of the EU's half-billion population, have
not escaped the financial crisis that has savaged global
markets.
Some see joining the euro zone -- which has itself been
mired in a deep recession -- as a path out of the chaos.
"For the Baltics we see euro adoption as a key exit strategy
from this crisis," said Peter Attard Montalto, emerging market
economist at Nomura.
But joining the single currency has its downside, as Slovaks
have found. Since Slovakia joined the euro this year, labour
costs have soared 54 percent to draw even with its richer peers,
eliminating a low cost advantage that lured investment and
fuelled an economic boom for most of this decade. []
EASTERN EXPANSION
Estonia is already in the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism
(ERM-2) currency grid, a precursor to euro adoption.
Poland, the European Union's largest ex-communist economy,
is still seen as the next country likely to enter the grid, in
2011. But it will probably be three years later before the
eastern European nation ditches its zloty currency for the euro.
Once inside ERM-2, a candidate country must keep its
currency within a trading band of plus or minus 15 percent
around a central parity rate, usually for two years, something
which has proved difficult in volatile markets.
All the euro zone aspirants are obliged to join.
The poll found Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Hungary
following Poland into ERM-2 in 2012, while Romania would not
enter until 2013.
The date for Poland's adoption for the euro in 2014 is a
year later than forecast in August's poll, and the entry date
for the Czech Republic has also slipped by a year to 2015.
Meanwhile, enlargement fatigue among some European Union
members means it will be some time before anyone else joins the
wider 27-nation club.
Croatia was seen signing up in 2012, while it would be 2016
before Macedonia and Serbia joined in. Montenegro is expected to
join in 2015 but it would be 2020 before Albania, Bosnia and
Turkey were admitted -- and even that may be optimistic for
Turkey.
"For Central and Eastern Europe, 'expansion fatigue' will
slowdown the membership process," said Nigel Rendell at RBC.
(For a FACTBOX click on [])
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Ruth
Pitchford)
