PRAGUE, May 6 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a smaller-than-expected 8.12 billion crown ($496.9
million) surplus in March, data showed on Tuesday.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) March Feb March fcast
balance 8.12 14.27 15.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -5.6 11.4 n/a
imports -2.4 11.5 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- The fall in exports was the biggest since August, 2002, while
imports dipped at their fastest pace since May, 2005.
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
dipped 6.2 percent in March from February while imports dipped
9.0 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports and imports rose 5.0 percent and 8.5
percent, respectively year-on-year in March, outpacing the
dynamics in crowns thanks to a firming of the domestic currency.
COMMENTARY:
LATEST COMMENTS:
JAN VEJMELEK, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE
"The March outcome of foreign trade was a disappointment
when it did not meet even our most pessimistic forecast."
"Some negative impacts of the strong crown and lower foreign
demand are seen in the figures, although the worse (than
expected) result was for a large part due to a lower number of
working days, Easter holidays and last year's extraordinarily
good outcome."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING BANK, PRAGUE
"Higher crude oil prices are not the only factor behind the
deterioration in the trade balance. The decline in surplus of
machinery and equipment signals the previous strengthening of
the currency, as well as a moderation of foreign demand, has
started to weight on Czech foreign trade as well."
"It seems likely that an increase in the foreign trade
surplus like we saw in 2007 can be hardly achieved this year."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"The Czech March foreign trade statistics are not ... good
news. Not because of the fact that the surplus came in below
expectations, but because export and import dynamics were very
weak."
"Although one has to take into account the negative calendar
effects, including the Easter holiday, I am not sure whether
those factors can fully explain the weak export/import
dynamics."
"For everybody who is worrying about the impact of the
strong Czech crown and slowing economic growth in the euro zone
on the Czech economy, the March foreign trade figures provide
support to expectations that Czech economic growth is likely to
decelerate in the coming quarters of the year."
PREVIOUS COMMENT:
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB:
"After a long time this is a bad result, caused by a drop in
automobile exports and more expensive imports of resources."
"Partially this can be explained by a lower number of
working days, but that is not a full explanation. I understand
it rather as a pause than the beginning of a new trend."
"This is an unpleasant number for the crown; on the other
hand no change from the point of view of monetary policy."
MARKET REACTION:
The crown dips to 25.17 to the euro <EURCZK=> from 25.13
ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak February trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision []
[] [] []
- For further details on March foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka)
