* Oil rises past $80, adding to 2009 78 pct gain
* Russia halts oil shipments to Belarus refineries
* China HSBC PMI hits fresh high but warns of inflation
(Recasts, updates prices, analyst comment)
By Fayen Wong
PERTH, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Oil kicked off the new year much
as it finished the old, rising past $80 a barrel on Monday for
the first time since mid-November on news that Russia has
halted oil supplies to Belarus and on cold weather in the
United States.
The bullish news and hopes for recovery in the U.S. economy
allowed the oil market to continue the run that lifted prices
by 78 percent last year, the biggest annual gain in a decade,
and also to shrug off dollar strength.
Russia, the world's largest oil and gas producer, has
halted oil supplies to Belarussian refineries after failing to
agree terms for 2010, traders said on Sunday, threatening a
repeat of a dispute which disrupted supplies to elsewhere in
Europe three years ago. []
Transit flows to other parts of Europe have not so far been
affected, but Germany and Poland are closely watching the
stand-off after supplies to some of their major refineries were
cut during a similar row between Moscow and Minsk in January
2007.
Also, forecasts by DTN Meteorlogix for freezing
temperatures across the U.S. midwest and cold weather in the
plains this week may boost heating demand and lend further
support to crude prices. [] []
U.S. crude for February delivery <CLc1> rose 78 cents to
$80.14 a barrel by 0700 GMT, after touching $80.24, its highest
since Nov. 22. London Brent crude <LCOc1> climbed 78 cents to
$78.71.
"The Russia supply issue to Belarus isn't a big impact on
the market at the moment, but it's an uncomfortable reminder
that the issue could blow up and potentially disrupt European
oil supplies," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives
manager at Newedge in Japan.
Having passed the $80 barrier, Hasegawa said traders could
push prices higher towards the next technical resistance level
of around $81.50.
Positive economic data from China and India added to the
bullish sentiment.
China's factories cranked up production in December on the
back of bulging order books, while the rate of growth in Indian
manufacturing rose for the first time in three months in
December, with activity reaching its highest since May on sharp
rises in new work and output, surveys showed. []
[]
However, with crude stockpiles in the United States still
hovering above the five-year average, some analysts and traders
questioned whether oil prices would soon be due for a
correction.
"There's quite a lot of doubt on whether oil prices can
keep recent gains since the fundamentals are still very weak.
We believe prices could correct and fall to the $70-levels over
January," said Clarence Chu, an oil trader at Hudsons Capital
Group in Singapore.
Investors are set to take cues from U.S. manufacturing data
later on Monday to gauge the strength of the economy, while
monthly employment figures in the first week of the new year
will keep investors focused on what is likely to be 2010's
reality -- the economy's struggle to recover.
On the data front, the main event will be Friday's report
from the Labor Department on December U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Economists polled by Reuters have forecast that payrolls shed
20,000 jobs in the final month of 2009, compared with just
11,000 lost in November. []
Asian stocks hit a 17-month high and the U.S. dollar was up
against major currencies on hopes U.S. job figures this week
will reflect a sustained economic recovery. []
(Editing by Michael Urquhart)
