BUDAPEST, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Emerging Europe's currencies
eased in early Monday trade versus the euro, pressured by gains
in the dollar and debt concerns in Ireland, with Poland's zloty
leading losses on a technical retreat from stronger levels.
At 0832 GMT, the zloty <EURPLN=> was down 0.6 percent to the
euro, the Czech crown <EURCZK=> -- the region's top performer
this year -- shed 0.3 percent, while Hungary's forint <EURHUF=>
and Romania's leu <EURRON=> were both a touch weaker.
"The euro/dollar is going down, the zloty is at 3.96 (to the
euro). The Irish problem is grave enough, it deteriorates the
market sentiment," said a currency dealer in Budapest.
The zloty failed to break below the 3.89 per euro resistance
level last week and analysts at SEB said it may test levels
closer to 4.00 per euro in coming sessions.
Others added that inflation data due later in the day may
provide some support to the currency should price growth
surprise on the upside, lending ammunition to the hawks on the
central bank's rate-setting council.
"Today's data on the development of consumer prices, in
October, have the potential to refuel the debate about a rate
hike at the end of the month," Commerzbank said in a note.
Analysts expect annual price growth to have accelerated to
2.9 percent in October from 2.5 percent in the prior month.
"Should the rate of inflation be worse than expected this is
likely to call the hawks back onto the scene providing a further
downward push in EUR-PLN," Commerzbank said.
The forint <EURHUF=> was flat to marginally weaker ahead of
a keynote speech by Prime Minister Viktor Orban in parliament at
1200 GMT, when he will inform parliament about the details of
his government's 2011 budget.
The budget targets a deficit below 3 percent of GDP for the
first time since Hungary joined the EU in 2004, however, the
methods employed -- heavy new taxes on companies and money from
private pension funds -- have unnerved some investors.
Central bank Governor Andras Simor has warned on Sunday that
the government's new taxes could fuel inflation and the bank
would take the necessary measures if price growth deviated from
its 3 percent medium-term target.
"Inflation remains stubbornly high and well above the MNB's
3 percent inflation target. With the forint currently weakening
and Governor Simor's comments yesterday, the risk of a Hungarian
rate hike is clearly rising," Danske Bank said in a note.
In contrast, market expectations in the Czech Republic, were
for steady rates for the foreseeable future. Minutes from the
last Czech central bank meeting released on Friday showed board
member Eva Zamrazilova was the lone vote for a rate hike while
the others backed no change. []
The minutes also noted that the new round of quantitative
easing (QE2) could delay interest rate hikes in the euro area.
"We still see the CNB holding on until there are clearer
signs of a less dovish ECB (perhaps in Q4-11)," Cheuvreux
economist Simon Quijano-Evans said in a morning note.
Romania's leu <EURRON=> was little changed within this
year's range of 4.2-4.3 per euro, with dealers saying there was
little scope to break it in coming weeks.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2010
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 24.637 24.575 -0.25% +6.82%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 3.949 3.924 -0.63% +3.93%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 276.48 276.68 +0.07% -2.22%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.383 7.38 -0.04% -1%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.295 4.293 -0.05% -1.34%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 106.8 107.07 +0.25% -10.22%
All data taken from Reuters at 0931 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1700 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Gergely Szakacs;
Editing by Toby Chopra)
