CEE MARKETS 1-Currencies gain as risk appetite returns

                                
 * Surge in stocks encourages investors in emerging Europe
                                
 * IMF upgrade to global GDP forecast adds to support
                                
 * Romania, Slovakia industrial output shows promising signs
                                
 
                                
 BUCHAREST, July 8 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
edged higher in early trade on Thursday, boosted by stronger
global stock markets which encouraged investors to take on
perceived riskier assets in emerging markets.
                                
 An International Monetary Fund upgrade to its 2010 global
growth forecast citing robust expansion in Asia and renewed U.S.
private demand supported sentiment, although the IMF also warned
that the euro area's debt crisis posed a big risk to recovery.
[ID:nTOE666034]
                                
 "This backdrop creates a supportive start for CEE currencies
with EUR/PLN and EUR/HUF both moving lower in the morning," said
UniCredit analyst Gyula Toth.
                                
 Markets are focusing on the European Central Bank's interest
rate decision later in the day and accompanying comments by
officials, which could give fresh direction to emerging European
assets.
                                
 "The region is pulled up by the euro/dollar, which broke
through some resistance levels. It looks like profit-taking
before the summer holidays; people were short in euros and now
they are levelling that," a Prague-based dealer said.
                                
 The Polish zloty <EURPLN=> hit a two-week high against the
dollar and was up 0.3 percent at 4.084 per euro by 0740 GMT.
                                
 "It looks like the zloty could be gaining further with the
levels of 4.04-4.05 reachable today," said a Warsaw-based
dealer.
                                
 Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> gained 0.4 percent to 282.12 per
euro, and dealers in Budapest said the EUR/HUF pair could go as
far as 281. 
                                
 The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was flat at 25.456 per euro.
                                
 "The crown has a resistance level at 25.400 per euro. If it
breaks it, then it could go further, possibly up to 25.000," a
Prague-based dealer said.
                                
 Romania's leu <EURRON=> was flat, having risen in the last
week since the IMF released the latest tranche of a 20 billion
euro bailout deal for the country.
                                
 It was little changed after data showed industrial output
rose 4.1 percent on the year in May. [ID:nLDE6670CU]
                                
 "The growth of the industrial output is not enough to keep
the GDP in a positive area. The other branches will contract and
so we will have negative economic growth," said Ionut Dumitru,
chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank in Bucharest.
                                
 "Our forecast for the end of this year is minus 3.0
percent."
                                
 Slovakia's industrial output also showed promising signs,
rising 31.0 percent year-on-year in May and beating forecasts.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency                    Latest   Previous Local    Local
                                
                                  close    currency currency
                                
                                           change   change
                                
                                           today    in 2010 
Czech crown      <EURCZK=>   25.456   25.483  +0.11%   +3.39%
Polish zloty     <EURPLN=>   4.084    4.098   +0.34%   +0.49%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=>   282.12   283.35  +0.44%   -4.17%
Croatian kuna    <EURHRK=>   7.184    7.188   +0.06%   +1.74%
Romanian leu     <EURRON=>   4.227    4.227   0%       +0.25%
Serbian dinar    <EURRSD=>   103.95   103.56  -0.38%   -7.76%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
2-yr T-bond   CZ2YT=RR   +12 basis points to  117bps over bmk*
7-yr T-bond   CZ7YT=RR    -7 basis points to  +131bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond  CZ9YT=RR    -2 basis points to  +141bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond   PL2YT=RR    -3 basis points to  +393bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond   PL5YT=RR    -7 basis points to  +382bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR    -2 basis points to  +328bps over bmk*
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond   HU3YT=RR    -1 basis points to  +520bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond   HU5YT=RR    -1 basis points to  +516bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond   HU10YT=RR  0 basis points to  +458bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 0940 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic 
close at 1600 GMT.
                                
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 (Reporting by Sam Cage and Reuters bureaus; Editing by Hugh
Lawson)