* CZK seen weaker at 27.1/EUR in 3 mths, 25.68 in 12 mths
* HUF seen down to 291 in 3 mths, up at 277.5 in 12 mths
* PLN seen down to 4.5 vs euro in 3 mths, 4.1 in 12 mths
* Leu seen weaker at 4.25 vs euro in 3 mths, 4.2 in 12 mths
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, May 8 (Reuters) - Central Europe's four most
traded currencies will likely weaken in the short term but a
global economic recovery could lift them on a 12-month horizon,
analysts said in a monthly Reuters poll<CEEFXPOLL01>.
Some analysts said the strengthening could come earlier if
global sentiment is favourable, while others said the region's
battered economies and currencies will continue to feel the heat
of the global crisis in coming months.
Hungary's forint<EURHUF=> has firmed six percent to the euro
and the Romanian leu<EURRON=> three percent in the past two
weeks, while the Czech crown<EURCZK=> and the Polish zloty
<EURPLN=> both gained around two percent as the global market
mood turned more friendly to risk and emerging market assets.
The poll of 40 economists showed that the crown, the leu and
the zloty are expected to give up all of that ground in the next
three months, and the forint -- an earlier underperformer --
would also shed most of its gains.
But the currencies are seen returning to a strengthening
tone on a six-month horizon, except for the leu.
In the next 12 months the zloty is seen firming eight
percent from its end-April levels, the crown and the forint four
percent, while the leu will be flat, according to the median
forecasts of the analysts in the poll.
CENTRAL BANKS EYED
The currencies of the heavily export-reliant region surged
in the past two weeks as economic indicators and easing measures
by central banks in the world sparked hopes the global economy
and the euro zone may be near the bottom of the crisis.
The forecasts for the currencies of Central European
emerging markets spread out in wide ranges, indicating that
there is still considerable uncertainty over the outlook for the
world economy and local fundamentals.
Those analysts who expect economic indicators in the world
to improve and central banks and governments to pump more money
into the economy, projected unbroken firming for the region's
currencies, which rise if appetite for risk in the world grows.
"Now the ECB (European Central Bank) is taking very
significant steps (to help euro zone growth)," said
Frankfurt-based currency strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann.
"Uncertainty about the status of the business cycle in the
euro zone is decreasing and that's good news for Eastern
European currencies," he added.
But a continuation of central bank interest rate cuts in
Central Europe to help economies weather the global crisis could
weigh on the currencies. All saw steep falls late last year and
earlier this year as concerns over growth and their ability to
finance their economies grew.
The Czech central bank reduced its rates by a quarter point
to a historic low on Thursday, also cutting its GDP outlook,
following a 50 basis point rate cut by the Romanian central bank
on Wednesday. [] []
Governments and central banks in the region expect recession
or low economic growth this year, and there may be more rate
cuts in the region in the next months as economic forecasts
deteriorate further, analysts said.
While Romania, like Hungary, has prevented bigger leu falls
by securing financing from the International Monetary Fund, the
forecasts showed that the leu is seen underperforming in
comparison to its regional peers.
"The fairly upbeat international market mood bodes well for
the Romanian currency. Should this continue, EUR/RON could trade
as low as 4.00," said Vlad Muscalu, analyst at ING Bank in
Budapest.
"Still, in the medium run we believe the leu is prone to
weakening as the central bank shifts its focus from combating
inflation to supporting the ailing economic activity," he added.
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; editing by Patrick Graham)
