May 8 (Reuters) - The European Union's main emerging
currencies are expected to give up gains posted in the past two
weeks, but strengthen on a 12-month horizon, a Reuters poll
showed on Friday. <CEEFXPOLL01>.
Below are comments from some of the 40 analysts polled in
the survey.
To see story please click on []
ON REGION
Ulrich Leuchtmann, Commerzbank, Frankfurt
"Very much depends on what happens in the business cycle in
Western Europe. Now the ECB is taking very significant steps...
Uncertainty about the status of the business cycle in the euro
zone is decreasing and that's good news for Eastern European
currencies."
Marcin Ciechonski, DM TMS Broker, Warsaw
"In our opinion CEE3 (the zloty, the crown and the forint)
will appreciate in the mid-term due to rising risk and
investment appetite in the region. These currencies depend more
on global sentiment then on the local factors. Better macro data
i.e. from U.S. or China clearly show that contraction in the
global economy is slowing down and the recovery might start even
in the 2H of 2009."
"Important is the fact, that confidence and expectations
among consumers and producers are improving strongly. It creates
a positive environment for more risky investment and for taking
short positions in EUR/PLN, EUR/CZK or EUR/HUF, despite some
problems in the economies of CE3 have not disappeared yet."
Gyorgy Kovacs, UBS, London
"On the 12-month horizon, the (exchange rate) forecasts
assume that the global economy will be over the bottom, that
will result in a higher risk appetite which will firm currencies
in the region."
ON CZECH CROWN
Helena Horska, Raiffeisenbank, Prague
"We still feel a real risk of a short-term weakening of the
Czech crown caused by weak economic indicators (particularly GDP
for Q1 2009) and a possible correction of the recent rally in
equity on global markets.
But if the global equity markets remain buoyant and further
economic indicators confirm the stabilization of the U.S.
economy, risk aversion will diminish and the CEE currencies,
including the CZK, might firm."
Radomir Jac/Dagmar Hajkova, Generali PPF, Prague
"If we assume in our base scenario that the CNB interest
rates will find their bottom in Q2 2009 at 1.50 percent... and
that global economy already saw its worst in Q4 2008 and Q1
2009, and that risk aversion therefore will not be growing in
rest of 2009 (of course, periods of temporary volatility and
increases in risk aversion certainly cannot be excluded), the
CZK may start to firm."
ON FORINT
Nigel Rendell, RBC Capital Markets, London
"The forint is vulnerable and is the risk proxy for CEE."
Peter Poplawski, BGZ, Warsaw
"The macroeconomic situation in Hungary is unsupportive and
is likely to remain a drag on the forint."
Orsolya Nyeste, Erste Bank, Budapest
"The forint started to appreciate after the publication of
the (good Match trade balance) figures, as any improvement in
the economic balance situation is an important fundamental
support for the exchange rate."
Gyorgy Barcza, K&H Bank, Budapest
"The market can see a rapid improvement in Hungary's
external balance... and that may help the forint strengthen even
further."
ON ZLOTY
Nigel Rendell, RBC Capital Markets, London
"Lower rates will see some further PLN weakening."
Peter Poplawski, BGZ, Warsaw
"Apart from budgetary deficit, most of negative news for the
zloty is already discounted. The zloty is likely to gradually
gain over the coming months."
"Zloty gained mainly thanks to improvement in risk appetite
therefore short term weakness is still probable -- especially
among anxiety about budget deficit and future GDP growth. In
longer term decreased external imbalances and fading negative
effect of so called "toxic" currency options will be supportive
for PLN."
ON LEU
Vlad Muscalu, ING Bank, Bucharest
"The fairly upbeat international market mood bodes well for
the Romanian currency. Should this continue, EUR/RON could trade
as low as 4.00. Still, in the medium run we believe the RON is
prone to weakening as the central bank shifts its focus from
combating inflation to supporting the ailing economic activity."
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; editing by Patrick Graham)
