PRAGUE, June 8 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a surplus of 11.95 billion crowns ($622.4 million) in
April, above analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on
Monday.
Separate data on Monday showed the unemployment rate stayed
flat at 7.9 percent of the workforce in May, according to the
Labour Ministry. []
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) April March April fcast
balance 11.95 22.49 (23.4) 9.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -22.8 -8.6 (-6.3) n/a
imports -26.0 -15.2 (-13.5) n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
dipped 2.1 percent in April from March, while imports slipped
1.6 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 27.6 percent and imports plunged
30.7 percent year-on-year in April.
COMMENT:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The result of the foreign trade came out as we expected;
there is a mildly positive impact of the scrap subsidy and other
economic measures implemented abroad. However, not even this can
compensate for the drop in foreign demand and the trade shall
therefore have a negative influence on the Czech economy also in
the second quarter.
"The balance of the foreign trade does not stand in the way
to further easing of interest rates at the end of June;
everything points this way. So the foreign trade is not
contradictory to the idea of lowering the rates."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"Unemployment was a bit of a surprise because we had
expected an increase ... I think the trend of deterioration on
the labour market will continue and will peak in the first
quarter next year at just above 10 percent.
"On trade, there was no surprise. It confirms we are in
recession. Exports are down due to lower demand from abroad. On
the other hand, imports are down as well because of lower prices
of imported inputs and from lower activity of producers."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The annual drop of almost 23 percent looks dramatic, but
with the seasonal adjustments and Easter factored in the export
shows signs of stabilization.
"The overall result is slightly better than we expected. I
do not see any influence on the crown. The development on the
stock markets and the path of its regional peers is more
important in the short term."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The bottom line figure looks better than expected but this
is rather because of a larger drop in imports than a good
performance in exports. So it somewhat reduces the positive
impact of a good figure.
"The underlying picture remains unchanged that the economy
is in the phase of inventory adjustment. Possibly sometime in
the future even a reduction in the drop of imports could be
viewed as a positive sign that some new economic cycle is
starting, but that is not seen now.
"The figures would not contradict any possible efforts by
the central bank to go down with interest rates."
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown edged higher to the strong side of 27 to the
euro <EURCZK=> after the data before slipping back to 27.025,
where it was before the data release.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak March trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] [] []
- For further details on April foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
