PRAGUE, May 21 (Reuters) - A weak government and persistent
budget deficits are the biggest risks to the Czech Republic's
fiscal and economic outlook after a May 28-29 election, an
analysts poll showed.
Analysts, like opinion polls, are split on whether a left or
right-leaning government will emerge from the vote.
The following is a breakdown of the poll of 16 analysts,
with the number of answers in brackets. For a story click
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1. Which government setup would be most positive for Czech
financial markets and economic/fiscal stability? Choose ONE.
A.) Social Democrat-led majority cabinet...................1
B.) Civic Democrat-led majority cabinet...................10
C.) Social-Democrat minority government, with Communist
support........................................................0
D.) grand coalition agreement between Social Democrats and
Civic Democrats................................................2
E.) other - TOP 09-led cabinet.............................2
F.) no answer..............................................1
2. Which would be the most negative?
A.) Social Democrat-led majority cabinet...................1
B.) Civic Democrat-led majority cabinet....................0
C.) Social-Democrat minority government, with Communist
support.......................................................13
D.) grand coalition agreement between Social Democrats and
Civic Democrats................................................0
E.) other - stalemate......................................1
F.) no answer..............................................1
3. Which make-up is the most likely in your opinion?
A.) Social Democrat-led majority cabinet...................3
B.) Civic Democrat-led majority cabinet....................5
C.) Social-Democrat minority government, with Communist
support........................................................4
D.) grand coalition agreement between Social Democrats and
Civic Democrats................................................2
E.) other - hard to answer/no answer......................2
4. What are the top THREE concerns or risks to the economic
and fiscal outlooks after the election?
A.) persistent budget deficits............................14
B.) failure to cut budget gap to 3 pct target by 2013......5
C.) delay in adopting the euro............................0
D.) a weak cabinet with lack of parliamentary backing that
will hamper key reforms.......................................14
E.) failure to start pension reform........................3
F.) halt in privatising state assets.......................0
G.) slump in foreign direct investment.....................2
H:) months of political bickering before any government is
formed........................................................10
5. What should be the top priority for the next government in
terms of reform? Please describe.
--Ten of 13 analysts who answered listed pension reform as
the main task, while six also listed healthcare reform with it.
6. Which government would be the most likely to meet the
country's convergence programme (i.e. lowering deficit to 3 pct
by 2013)?
A.) Social Democrat-led majority cabinet...................0
B.) Civic Democrat-led majority cabinet....................7
C.) Social-Democrat minority government, with Communist
support........................................................0
D.) grand coalition agreement between Social Democrats and
Civic Democrats................................................2
E.) other - TOP 09-led cabinet.............................2
F.) there will be slippage no matter who is in charge......2
G.) hard to answer/no answer...............................3
7. Which government would be most positive for preparing the
Czech Republic for eventual euro adoption? Please choose one.
A.) Social Democrat-led majority cabinet...................2
B.) Civic Democrat-led majority cabinet....................7
C.) Social-Democrat minority government, with Communist
support........................................................0
D.) grand coalition agreement between Social Democrats
and Civic Democrats............................................1
E.) other - TOP 09-led cabinet.............................1
F.) not an issue/no answer.................................5
* The following 16 analyst groups participated: Atlantik FT,
Capital Economics, Ceska Sporitelna, Citibank, CN Finance, CSOB,
FIO, General PPF Asset Management, ING Commercial Banking, JP
Morgan, Komercni Banka, Patria Finance/KBC, Raiffeisenbank, RBC
Capital Markets, UniCredit Bank, Wood & Co.
(Reporting by Jason Hovet and Mirka Krufova; Editing by Toby
Chopra)
