* Currencies broadly unchanged or slightly weaker
* Near-term weakening pressures seen
* Next week's CPI, GDP data key for FX
(Updates prices, adds FX poll, detail)
By Gergely Szakacs and Marius Zaharia
BUDAPEST/BUCHAREST, May 8 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint
hovered near last session's four-month highs on Friday, as
central European currencies consolidated their gains after
Thursday's big rally.
Hungary's forint <EURHUF=>, which has gained around 15
percent since hitting an all-time-low in March, had risen 0.1
percent from Thursday's domestic close by 1414 GMT.
It was little moved by central bank minutes, which showed
all board members voted to keep rates flat at April's meeting.
However, a sustained forint strength may lead to a rate cut,
some rate setters said.
"If the forint can stay around and below 280 versus the euro
in a lasting way in the next two weeks then this may lead to
monetary easing," said analyst Gergely Suppan at Takarekbank
Poland's zloty <EURPLN=> lost 0.2 percent, after it got some
brief intra-day support from comments from the finance ministry,
which said it did not rule out exchanging EU funds via the
currency market to defend the unit.
Romania's leu <EURRON=> and the Czech crown were marginally
weaker as Prague was closed due to a public holiday.
The leu was seen having room to gain next week after bullish
comments from the central bank on Thursday that "speculative"
pressure on the currency had already peaked.
"The (local) market seems dominated by a positive touch
after yesterday's (Thursday) news conference held by the
governor," one dealer said.
The Romanian central bank cut its inflation forecasts for
this year and next on Thursday, as the economy showed signs of
contracting fast due to global turmoil, but said room for new
interest rate cuts was limited. []
Romania's industrial output showed a minor decrease on the
month, hinting to an at least temporary halt in the downturn in
manufacturing, but dealers said it had little impact on the leu,
which was stabilised by an IMF deal secured in March.
SHORT-TERM PRESSURES
Central European currencies will likely weaken in the
short-term, but if the global economy shows signs of recovery,
that would lift them over a 12-month horizon, a Reuters poll of
40 economists showed [].
Future weakening pressure is seen from central banks, which
seem to be continuing their monetary easing to give a helping
hand to the region's ailing economies, especially if forecasts
deteriorate further.
Next week's inflation and gross domestic product data across
the region will be key for currencies, as the two indicators are
have paramount importance for the interest rates outlook,
analysts said.
"The most interesting will be the GDP growth flash
estimates," analysts of Erste group said in a note. "We expect
figures in the region of -2 percent and -6 percent on the year
for the Czech and Hungarian economies, respectively."
Hungarian bond yields rose slightly early on Friday after
Thursday's big rally sent yields about 30 basis points lower on
all maturities but bounced back later to finish largely
unchanged from the previous session.
Polish bonds were relatively stable, as investors awaited a
two-year bond tender next week.
----------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT-------------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2009
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 26.678 26.569 -0.41% +0.28%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 4.372 4.363 -0.21% -5.88%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 278 278.37 +0.13% -5.2%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.354 7.356 +0.03% +0.15%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.138 4.131 -0.17% -2.99%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 94.465 95.24 +0.82% -5.28%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR +3 basis points to 158bps over bmk*
4-yr T-bond CZ4YT=RR +17 basis points to +201bps over bmk*
8-yr T-bond CZ8YT=RR -4 basis points to +275bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR +5 basis points to +426bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR 0 basis points to +332bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR -5 basis points to +280bps over bmk*
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR +23 basis points to +844bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR +19 basis points to +761bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR +23 basis points to +644bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 1714 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, writing by Balazs
Koranyi/Gergely Szakacs/Marius Zaharia; Editing by Victoria
Main)
