BRATISLAVA, May 21 (Reuters) - Support for the Slovak leftist SMER party of
Prime Minister Robert Fico has slipped, opening the possibility that a wide
centre-right coalition could unseat the government after an election next month,
an opinion poll showed on Friday.
The survey by FOCUS agency showed backing for SMER fell 1.5 percentage
points from a month ago to 35.3 percent, slightly cutting its lead ahead of the
strongest opposition SDKU party which gained 0.6 point to 14.0 percent.
The Slovak parliament will be highly fragmented and the poll showed that
SDKU, the party set up by former right-wing prime minister Mikulas Dzurinda who
won praise for pro-market reforms in 2002-2006, and four other parties could win
as many seats as the ruling coalition.
The poll showed five SDKU, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), the Christian
Democrats (KDH) and two ethnic Hungarian factions, SMK and MOST-HID, would win
75 seats in the 150-seat parliament, a perfect stalemate.
The result is however highly uncertain given the margin of error for each
party. Four parties polled only slightly above the 5 percent threshold needed to
win parliamentary seats.
A stalemate would mean that Fico would need to find more or different
coalition partners than the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS), and the HZDS
party of former authoritarian prime minister Vladimir Meciar.
The next government will have to slash down the fiscal deficit, after Fico's
cabinet pledged to cut the gap to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product this
year and below the EU's official limit of 3 percent of GDP in 2012.
Fico has campaigned hard on pledges not to cut welfare amid the economic
crisis, with the help of the export-fuelled economy that is rebounding at the
fastest rate in the EU.
A spat with Hungary over the treatment of half a million-strong Hungarian
minority in southern Slovakia has soured the pre-election campaign, and raised
tensions with Budapest.
The Hungarian right-wing Fidesz party, which won election in April, plans to
ease citizenship claims for Hungarians living abroad.
Investors have called for further structural and market reforms, adjustment
of the legal system, better law enforcement and a fight against flourishing
corruption, a problem in ex-communist countries, which joined the European Union
in 2004.
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DATE INSTITUTE SMER SDKU SAS KDH SMK MOST-HID SNS HZDS
May 19/05 FOCUS 35.3 14.0 13.3 8.3 5.9 5.6 6.1 5.1
May 14/05 MEDIAN 38.4 15.3 6.2 11.5 3.3 2.7 9.1 7.0
April 28/10 MVK 35.1 11.7 11.6 11.4 6.0 5.1 6.2 5.2
April 22/10 FOCUS 36.8 13.4 11.5 8.6 5.1 5.1 8.6 5.4
April 20/10 MEDIAN 44.0 13.1 4.3 13.1 3.9 2.3 7.0 6.1
March 26/10 MEDIAN 43.9 12.7 4.8 11.1 6.2 1.6 7.9 6.3
March 18/10 FOCUS 38.4 14.3 8.6 9.7 5.2 6.9 6.3 5.4
March 9/10 MVK 37.1 12.8 9.2 12.7 6.0 5.2 4.9 6.6
Feb 19/10 MEDIAN 41.3 12.2 2.7 11.3 3.3 4.3 9.6 9.3
Feb 16/10 FOCUS 38.6 11.3 9.6 9.6 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.8
Jan 28/10 FOCUS 41.4 15.2 5.1 9.0 5.6 5.2 6.2 6.5
Jan 25/10 MVK 42.0 9.4 9.2 8.9 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4
Dec 22/09 MEDIAN 41.7 14.4 n/a 9.5 4.0 3.2 12.7 9.0
Dec 17/09 FOCUS 37.9 11.5 5.3 11.0 5.6 5.7 8.4 7.0
Dec 01/09 MEDIAN 41.5 15.5 n/a 11.1 5.4 4.1 8.4 8.8
Nov 30/09 FOCUS 35.9 12.4 3.6 10.2 6.2 6.7 9.0 7.0
Nov 09 MVK 42.3 12.0 4.8 10.0 6.1 5.2 8.0 5.2
Oct 27/09 FOCUS 37.4 14.4 4.4 10.1 5.1 5.8 5.8 6.9
Oct 19/09 MEDIAN 42.9 16.3 n/a 10.8 4.6 3.1 9.8 7.8
Sept 23/09 FOCUS 35.3 13.4 3.2 11.2 6.2 5.8 8.6 6.1
Sept 18/09 MEDIAN 45.1 16.0 n/a 9.5 6.6 3.0 10.6 7.2
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June 2006 election 29.1 18.4 n/p 8.3 11.7 n/p 11.7 8.8
NOTES:
- A party must make it through the 5 percent threshold to win parliamentary
seats.
- The FOCUS poll was conducted between May 5 and May 11 among 1,055 eligible
Slovak voters.
- Fico picked SNS and HZDS as coalition partner in 2006, holding a comfortable
majority in the 150-seat parliament.
The parties are:
- SMER: left-of-centre, strong social, welfare agenda
- SDKU: centre right, business-reform oriented
- Freedom and Solidarity (SaS): newly formed centre-right, liberal party
- Christian Democrats (KDH): conservative, centre-right
- ethnic Hungarians (SMK)
- ethnic Hungarians (Most-Hid): founded by ex-SMK leader Bela Bugar after an
inner-party row.
- Slovak National Party (SNS): rightist party with xenophobic and nationalist
rhetoric, led by populist Jan Slota
- HZDS: centre-right party led by former authoritarian prime minister Vladimir
Meciar.
(Reporting by Martin Santa; Editing by Reed Stevenson)
