PRAGUE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output dropped
by 7.3 percent year-on-year in October, less than market
expectations and the smallest decline in a year, the Czech
Statistics Office said in a flash estimate on Monday.
Analysts had forecast an 8.0 percent annual fall in October,
decelerating from an 11.9 percent fall in September.
The CSU said the data included 74 percent of industrial
output respondents, representing 82 percent of the standard
survey sample in terms of total revenues.
The statistics office will release full details on Dec. 14.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Oct Sept Oct forecast
Industrial output -7.3 -11.9 -8.0
(For table of October data click on............[])
- Seasonally adjusted output was estimated to be down 5.0
percent year-on-year.
- Industrial sales fell 11.6 percent annually in current prices
in October.
- The value of new orders dropped 11.3 percent year-on-year in
October, of which foreign orders fell 4.9 percent.
COMMENTARY:
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The result is better than expectations. The improving
development of industrial output in the CEE region was hinted by
Polish production already, and the Czech data only confirms
that.
"In the coming months, the year-on-year falls of industrial
output will decrease significantly. By the end of this year, we
could get close to last year's level of production. In 2010, we
expect an increase of production of on average 2.0 percent due
to a slight recovery abroad."
"This (data) is slightly positive news for the Czech crown."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"Quite a good result that suggests the situation in industry
is starting to stabilise. However, it is still early for any
euphoria. First of all, the development of new orders is not so
optimistic, as the drops of the previous months will be
difficult to fill in -- not only in the horizon of months, but
maybe years. What's more the scrap subsidy is mostly gone and
there is talk about new shutdowns in the car industry."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"We don't know the structure. Only the headline figure was
better than expected; I think it is in line with a similar
pattern we see with business partners in western countries. The
sector is gradually moving back to normal."
"I don't see any big impact (on markets) from this figure.
More important for monetary policy is the exchange rate."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown slightly weaker at 26.09 bid versus the euro <EURCZK=>
at 0830 GMT from 26.049 ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
LINKS:
- For further information on October preliminary releases on
industry data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/home
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
((prague.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; +420 224 190 477; Reuters
Messaging: jason.hovet.reuters.com@reuters.net))
