BRATISLAVA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy contracted
by a real 4.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2009,
less than the 5.3 percent fall in the second quarter, the Slovak
Statistics Office said on Friday.
The third quarter preliminary flash estimate of gross
domestic product <SKGDPQ=ECI> (GDP) was broadly in line with
market forecast of a 5.0 percent decline for Slovakia, which
joined the euro zone in January.
The heavily export-reliant economy, however, continued to
rise on the quarterly, seasonally adjusted, basis when showing a
1.6 percent increase, after a 2.2 percent growth in the previous
quarter.
ANALYST COMMENT:
EDUARD HAGARA, ING BANK, ANALAYST
"We saw confirmation of positive risks, in today's data, as
foreshadowed by industrial production figures."
"We expected investments would remain weak, but we need to
wait for the structure."
"The outlook, however, remains uncertain. We have to wait
and see how industrial sector will cope with the fading effect
of car-scrapping schemes. Effects of fiscal incentives, across
Europe, will also fade."
"We have to wait until the half of the next year, to be more
confident about prospects of sustainable positive trends."
"Following today's data, there are positive risks on the
up-side to the full-year growth."
MARIA VALACHYOVA, SLOVENSKA SPORITELNA, SENIOR ANALYST
"Economy growth is related to the improving foreign demand,
economies of our key trade partners are gradually improving -
mainly Germany."
"The biggest rise was seen in the industrial sector -
industrial output rose by 9 percent quarter-on-quarter"
"Bottoming out has been rather steep in line with steep
recovery in Germany , but we expect the growth q/q to slow in
the coming quarters."
"There was a major effect from one-off factors such as
fiscal stimulus or car-scrapping schemes ... this will fade."
KEY POINTS
- The July-September figure was the third contraction,
year-on-year, in a row
- The 5.6 percent decline, year-on-year, seen in the first
quarter of this year, was the first contraction since the first
quarter of 2000.
- The Statistics Office publishes no further breakdown of the
flash estimate GDP data.
- Detailed third-quarter GDP data are scheduled to be released
on Dec. 3.
BACKGROUND:
- The Slovak economy has been slowing sharply from one of the
highest growth rates in the European Union in the past few
years. Slovak GDP growth was at a record high of 10.4 percent in
2007 and stood at 6.4 percent last year.
- The euro zone's newcomer economy is expected to contract this
year because the global financial crisis curbs demand for Slovak
exports, mainly cars and electronics goods.
- The central bank forecasts a full-year GDP fall of 5.6
percent this year, while the finance ministry sees a 5.7 percent
contraction.
LINKS:
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website:
http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
(Reporting by Martin Santa)
