Sept 2 (Reuters) - Central European currencies are seen
returning to their earlier strengthening trend in the next
months, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Wednesday.
Following are analyst comments on trends.
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ON ZLOTY
Radoslaw Cholewinski, Noble Bank, Warsaw
"The zloty remains in the appreciation trend which may
somewhat strengthen in the autumn, as turnover in the FX market
increases; a relatively better performance of the Polish economy
(positive GDP growth) should further improve the market
sentiment."
Anders Svendsen, Nordea, Copenhagen
"We still see the PLN as undervalued and expect a
strengthening. The potential for speeding up the privatisation
process points to the possibility of a further strengthening
towards the end of this year. Strong activity indicators in
Poland as well as from the world's major economies, a more or
less balanced current account and relatively high interest rates
also point to currency strengthening. Finally, the constraints
on the level of public debt could make local government bonds
relatively more attractive compared with the regional peers."
"Going into 2010, we are somewhat more sceptical and expect
continued high volatility around an almost sideways trend, as
markets could be disappointed about the speed of the global and
local recovery and may also worry about the budget situation and
the upcoming elections."
ON FORINT
Gyorgy Barta, CIB, Budapest
"The risk of a possible correction in global markets could
weigh somewhat on emerging market assets during the fall season.
However, the forint should return to its long-term appreciation
trend versus the euro more definitively during the course of
2010."
Zsolt Kondrat, MKB Bank, Budapest
"We believe that the favourable domestic news factors -- the
tight budget, improving external balance, more stable financing
-- have been priced into the exchange rate, therefore we see
limited scope for further (forint) strengthening. The volatility
of the exchange rate has remained high relative to both the
long-term average and regional peers, therefore the risk of
sudden and sizeable exchange rate changes has remained."
ON LEU
Vlad Muscalu, ING Bank, Bucharest
"In the short-run the RON seems dormant as central bank
support is likely to dominate but in the medium run the poor
fundamentals suggest the RON is biased lower. It may become more
vulnerable as further monetary easing could follow. The RON may
become an attractive short as the heavy debt supply limits the
probability of a liquidity squeeze, capping the cost of carrying
short RON positions. Nevertheless, a pickup in global market
mood may prove favourable."
ON REGION
Joanna Pluta, TMS Brokers, Warsaw
"This month can bring some weakening to the local
currencies, as they should be influenced mostly by the temporary
worsening of the global investment sentiment. It seems like the
market is getting ready for a bounce back. The major stock
indices, along with the euro/dollar are not able to defeat the
upper bounds of their fluctuation ranges despite good figures
coming from the global economies. The fast recovery is already
priced in the market, so it is hard to positively surprise the
investors. Moreover, market participants are becoming doubtful
whether their optimism was not premature, therefore they are
much more sensitive to disappointing information from the major
economies."
Balint Hada, Quaestor, Budapest
"Massive stimulus packages were approved in Asia, in the
euro area and the United States in order to... pull the economy
out of the worst recession of the past half century but the
positive effects of all these measures seem waning. That poses a
risk to global investor sentiment. We think that currency moves
in our region are still not based on fundamentals. Our
currencies might fail to strengthen further, or our best case
scenario is to see range-bound moves in the coming months."
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; editing by Stephen Nisbet)
