* Leu slightly up as c.bank intervenes
* Hungary output data may suggest recovery
(Adds fixed income, detail)
By Dagmara Leszkowicz
WARSAW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Romania's leu was slightly up on
Tuesday after President Traian Basescu's election victory, with
some dealers saying it looked like the central bank was
intervening to protect the leu on worries that ongoing political
uncertainty might affect an IMF-led aid deal.
The Fund's representative said on Tuesday the IMF is "pretty
firm" on its demand that Romania pass a 2010 budget with a
deficit of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product to resume a 20
billion euro ($29.76 billion) aid package. []
"The central bank has intervened indirectly to protect the
leu ... though it is hard to say how big the impact from
politics has been and its influence on currency developments,"
said one Bucharest-based dealer.
A central bank spokesman told Reuters: "We never comment on
this issue."
The Fund has said before it will withhold a 1.5 billion euro
aid tranche due this month until a new cabinet and a
cost-cutting budget are in place, raising market worries about
state finances given that the economy is expected to contract by
8 percent this year. []
By contrast, one of the country's central bank officials
said curbing appreciation of Romania's unit is wise as it helps
exports.[]
At 1030 GMT the leu <EURRON=> was 0.1 percent stronger,
trading at 4.224.
DATA IMPROVES
Other currencies in the region were relatively unchanged
compared to the previous close with the Czech crown <EURCZK=>
and Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> slightly up and Poland's zloty
<EURPLN=> a touch down against the common currency.
Hungary's data showed the country's industrial output fell
12.9 percent year-on-year -- slightly less than expected -- and
grew in monthly terms, suggesting a recovery may be under way.
[]
Industrial output, the key indicator for the gross domestic
product figure, has been falling for months across the
export-reliant region as the global crisis hit their markets in
western Europe.
The Czech Republic as well as Poland's data already showed
the output drops were lower than expected, with Polish officials
and analysts saying the figure to be in a positive territory
already in November and December this year.
Poland's economy, unlike all European Union members, avoided
recession with economists now raising their growth forecasts
from 1 percent to slightly higher and even 3 percent already in
2010.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2009
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 25.588 25.605 +0.07% +4.55%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 4.074 4.07 -0.1% +1.01%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 269.28 269.36 +0.03% -2.13%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.285 7.285 0% +1.1%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.224 4.23 +0.14% -4.96%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 95.613 95.87 +0.27% -6.41%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
3-yr T-bond CZ3YT=RR -22 basis points to 69bps over bmk*
7-yr T-bond CZ7YT=RR +2 basis points to +97bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond CZ10YT=RR -7 basis points to +85bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR +4 basis points to +378bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR +2 basis points to +336bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR 0 basis points to +302bps over bmk*
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR +4 basis points to +534bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR +2 basis points to +483bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR 0 basis points to +431bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 1013 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Dagmara Leszkowicz;
Editing by Ruth Pitchford and Andy Bruce)
