PRAGUE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose 2.1
percent year-on-year in December, more than market expectations
and the first annual rise since September 2008, the Czech
Statistics office said in a flash estimate on Friday.
Analysts had forecast 1.3 percent annual growth in December,
after a 0.1 percent fall in November.
Confidence indicators and new order data point to a gradual
recovery in industry in the coming months, although analysts say
an uncertain pickup in foreign demand -- key for the
export-reliant Czech economy -- could weigh.
Czech industry is also centred around car production, which
may suffer to start the year after Germany ended a car scrap
subsidy in autumn and companies wound down restocking
inventories.
Volkswagen's <VOWG.DE> Czech unit, Skoda Auto, has already
cut production shifts starting this month for some of its
smaller models that were favoured under the scrapping schemes
The CSU said the data included 81 percent of industrial
output respondents, representing 82 percent of the standard
survey sample in total revenues.
The statistics office will release full details on Feb. 11.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Dec Nov Dec forecast
Industrial output +2.1 -0.1 +1.3
(For table of December data click on...........[])
- Seasonally adjusted output was estimated to be down 0.4
percent year-on-year.
- Industrial sales dipped 0.2 percent annually in current prices
in December.
- The value of new orders grew 12.5 percent, of which foreign
orders increased 16.9 percent.
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was a touch lower after the data
at 26.23 to the euro, from 26.215.
COMMENTARY:
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANK
"The low statistical year-on-year base will play in favour
of growth; in the course of the year we expect some rise in the
global economic performance and this is related to recovery of
exports."
"On the other hand, it can be expected a marked worsening
for the automotive industry with the effect of the end of car
scrapping schemes abroad."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"Industry crawled out of negative figures due to comparisons
with a period that saw double digit drops. The good news is more
confirmation of a stabilisation of Czech industry. This year, we
count on slow growth of industrial production of 2 percent."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"It is definitely a positive surprise... after 14 months of
decreasing industrial output. The outlook is even better, we are
looking at orders quite significantly increasing."
"The recovery is helped by better economic conditions in the
euro zone, and we can now only hope that Germany and others can
help boost the Czech economy even more."
"But this figure doesn't change outlook for interest rates
and monetary policy."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
LINKS:
- For further information on December preliminary releases on
industry data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/home
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet; Editing by Andy Bruce)
