(Repeats story from late Tuesday)
* Central bank expects 2009 GDP at -4.2 percent
* Finance ministry forecasts 2009 GDP at -6.2 percent
* Central bank sees downside risks to forecast
* Finance minister hopes for better result
(Recasts with finance ministry forecasts, adds IMF)
By Peter Laca
BRATISLAVA, June 16 (Reuters) - Slovakia expects its economy
to shrink as much as 6.2 percent this year, official forecasts
showed on Tuesday, confirming expectations that global downturn
will drag the euro zone newcomer into its first recession ever.
In separate forecast releases, the Slovak central bank said
it saw the economy contracting by 4.2 percent in 2009, before
rebounding to a 2.4 percent growth next year, while the finance
ministry said the fall this year would be 6.2 percent deep.
The ministry was also more pessimistic about the rebound in
2010, predicting gross domestic product growth of only 1.1
percent. The new ministry forecasts were exactly in line with
figures obtained by Reuters from a ministry source on Monday.
The difference between the two sets of predictions was
partly caused by the cut-off date for data used in calculations,
with the central bank using statistics available by May 13, and
the ministry incorporating a more recent economic indicators.
Central bank Governor Ivan Sramko said data released later
pointed to downside risks to the bank's forecast.
Moreover, unlike the central bank, the finance ministry did
not use contribution of projects that have yet to be realised,
such as some highway construction plans.
Finance Minister Jan Pociatek said the ministry had opted to
work out a conservative prognosis, which will now be the basis
for revision of this year's fiscal plan and serve as the
economic framework for next year's budget.
"The risks to this prognosis are relatively balanced on both
sides," Pociatek told journalists. "I personally believe that
the final result will be better than the forecast."
Meanwhile, a report posted on the finance ministry web page
showed the International Monetary Fund expected Slovakia's
economic contraction of 4.5 percent in 2009.
Pociatek said "Slovakia, like most European Union
countries", would breach the bloc's public finance deficit limit
of 3 percent of GDP this year, adding the key was the plan to
resume fiscal consolidation from next year.
The Slovak government had initially expected the central
European country of 5.4 million people to be one of the best
performing European Union members this year.
But the 70 billion euro economy, a member of the euro zone
since January, has been slowing rapidly because of collapsed
demand in western European for its exports, mainly cars and
electronics goods.
Slowing economies have been pushing up unemployment rates
and curbing budget revenues across central and Eastern Europe,
with some governments facing public unrest over the social
impact of the crisis.
Pociatek said unemployment rate should rise to 12.5 percent
this year, from the latest figure of 10.9 percent in April, and
the ministry saw joblessness peaking at 13.4 percent next year.
Prime Minister Robert Fico, who won power in 2006 on
promises to take better care of the poor and will face a general
election in one year, has been trying to juggle shrinking budget
revenues and a pledge to maintain expanded welfare programmes.
Pociatek reiterated the government would focus on easing the
impact of the crisis on regular Slovaks and try to preserve jobs
with already announced measures, including temporary cuts in
payroll taxes.
(Additional reporting by Martin Santa; Editing by Andy Bruce)
